Archive for 2009

Monthly Chart – Decemeber 2009

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

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A new year high close of 5235 for the expiry ?!

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

Nifty has been hovering in a range for the entire month and now it is the last day of the december series.
The pattern favours bulls to a great extent and it is bears who are trapped in the last week. Nifty has been waiting to breakout of the 5200 barrier and it looks like it might be able to do so today and possibly close around 5235 levels.
Options data as far as volume PCR is concerned is neutral. There has been massive unwinding of 40% in 5200 put with a large turnover and some increase in 5200 call. This points to some sort of bearishness, but then bulls having established a strong upperhand might be able to push higher today.

Resistance levels : 5197, 5235, 5265


Support levels : 5161, 5145, 5128

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

Another flat day.. Will there be a new year high close today ?!

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009
Nifty has been hovering around the upperband now and the moment there is a breakout of the range, a pull back immediately follows.
It is one more session to go for this expiry. The build up in near strike puts and calls are all equally poised and it is not giving any decisive indication.
A move towards 5295 levels is imminent and it is better to rollover longs to the next series, if that does not happen in december as a strong breakout is expected any time soon.

Resistance levels : 5197, 5217, 5235


Support levels : 5161, 5145, 5128

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

Range high reached and ready for a breakout ?!

Tuesday, December 29th, 2009

Nifty made a strong up move towards the end to reach a new year high and closed a shade below that. 
Only on rare occasions, Nifty has made a new high on the expiry week and the general tendency is to confine within the range and give an up move and close near the already made high for the expiry.
This time around the majority of the move came after accumulation of the call, there is also a strong possibility to make new high moves before the expiry and even a test of 5295 levels is not ruled out.

Resistance levels : 5197, 5223, 5235


Support levels : 5161, 5145, 5128

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

A gravity defying move to kick start the momentum finally !!

Thursday, December 24th, 2009

Yesterday’s move completely engulfed almost the past two weeks down move. For a long time the expectation is that momentum has to kick in with increased volume and there will be a rally till 5300.
The indications were that the markets may not fall below 4940 levels and a bounce was expected from the range bottom because of heavy accumulation in 4900 puts, a sharp upmove of this magnitude was not foreseen because of the accumulation seen in 5000, 5100, 5200 calls.
Yesterday 5000 and 5100 calls saw heavy unwinding and 5200 call did not see much of unwinding. Since it was the turn of call buyers who got benefitted, there could be an upmove to test the range high of 5182 and also pierce that and test 5223 levels this time, now that the momentum has been kick started.

Resistance levels : 5162, 5183, 5223


Support levels : 5115, 5084, 5067

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

Arbitrage game…Markets to move in a tight range till expiry ?!

Wednesday, December 23rd, 2009

Markets gave a bounce yesterday after testing the lower Bollinger band. 
The moment markets reach the bottom of the band, the accumulation in 4900 puts has increased and the OI stands at 60 Lakhs. 5000 calls also added more to the OI and it now stands at 71 Lakhs.
This gives an indication that this entire month seems to be that of range play and more of arbitrage is being done by selling calls and puts and moving the markets in a tight range and letting the time value erode in the options.
Given this scenario, it is highly unlikely that the range of 4940 will be broken and even if that happens there is a higher possibility of Nifty to rise back into the range.  

Resistance levels : 4996, 5015


Support levels : 4970, 4957

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

Bears to push markets further out of the band ?!

Tuesday, December 22nd, 2009

Yesterday markets broke another crucial support level of 4980 and moved towards 4940 levels.
The accumulation in 5000 calls is very heavy and increased almost by 50%. Going by the trend, there were initially major writing in 5200 call, followed by 5100 and yesterday it was the turn of 5000 call.
There were some accumulation in the 4900 and 4800 puts, but not to the extent that it can prevent a correction till 4900 levels. Also the volume PCR is at 0.81, favouring bears to a good extent.
Bears have clearly taken the upperhand and given the scenario that market is testing Bollinger band low now, any further break of 4940 levels would bring in weakness and can push markets to test 4900 levels and beyond.

Resistance levels : 4957, 4980, 4996


Support levels : 4925, 4898, 4882

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

Markets testing range bottom. Will there be more sell-off ?!

Monday, December 21st, 2009

On friday, markets broke the 5000 barrier and tested and closed near the crucial support of 4985 levels.
Looking at the unwinding in 5000 puts, and the heavy build up seen in 5100 and 5200 calls,  it now points to more of a downside move. 
Also there was a powerful intraday bull trap around the previous close level of 5042 and now that will be a hard level to cross for this series.
The build up in 4900 and 4800 put are also reasonably higher and so there might not be any major sell-off as of now.

Resistance levels : 5014, 5030, 5043


Support levels : 4980, 4957, 4942

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

Longest range play in recent times…Will markets come out of range soon?!

Friday, December 18th, 2009

Yesterday was another doji day and bears did not push markets beyond 5000 levels.
The build up in both the near strike calls and puts are ruling very high and the moment markets reach the lower end of the band, the build up in 5000 puts increase which pushes the markets back into the range. This was happening for quite some time in the calls as well.
The situation currently is that both 5100 and 5200 calls have accumulated more than 70 lakhs in OI and it is very hard for the markets to make any up move beyond 5087 levels. At the same time 5000 puts have also accumulated around 61 lakhs and so a break is also not happening too soon.
It is tough for the markets to remain in a tight range for a longer period of time, but given the scenario it is better to wait for a decisive breakout also. The key levels remain the same.

Resistance levels : 5053, 5067, 5087


Support levels : 5018, 4985, 4970

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

Bears slowly taking upperhand. Markets to test further lows ?!

Thursday, December 17th, 2009

Markets tested the range bottom of 5020 levels yesterday towards the end of the session also.
Looking at the build up in 5100 and 5200 calls, it looks like market is slowly beginning to be controlled by bears. There is unwinding seen in 5000 puts which also is favouring bears and the volume PCR has increased to 1.14.
All these indications are pointing to the fact that bears are slowly taking the upperhand and are likely to push markets to test 4970 levels also and any break of that would push Nifty further towards 4900 levels.

Resistance levels : 5053, 5067, 5087


Support levels : 5018, 4985, 4970

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com