Archive for June, 2009

A retest of 20 DMA…Will it be able to pierce that today?!

Tuesday, June 30th, 2009

Yesterday’s session had a retest of the 20 DMA at 4439 and the moment that level was reached, NIFTY was pulled back almost to the previous close.
NF reached a level of 4447. So the level of 4450 has been established as a strong resistance once again and the view remains the same. Any move that can break 4450 levels will be extremely bullish from this point.
On the other hand a break of 4350 level on the downside, will push NIFTY further low to test 4314 levels which can then provide some support.

Resistance levels : 4405, 4428, 4450, 4490

Support levels : 4350, 4314, 4289, 4256


Happy Trading

Strong up move in the last session. Will it sustain ?!

Sunday, June 28th, 2009

It was a very strong up move in the first day of the new series. The trend seen was so strong and is pointing that this up move is going to continue.
In any case, earlier, 4450 has been established as a very strong resistance and in my opinion, that should not be easily broken on the upside. It is also the level where the 20 DMA has been residing for a while and would offer a good resistance.
If this market breaks 4450 on the upside and moves to 4490 levels, then the uptrend might continue. Any reversal from 4450 will bring in strong weakness.

Resistance levels : 4428, 4450, 4490

Support levels : 4355, 4312, 4289, 4256

Happy Trading

An expiry controlled by bears..What next?

Friday, June 26th, 2009

This was the move that I was expecting for the past two days and that was the reason for my writing ‘bears totally controlling the expiry and bearish view maintained’ posts.

But I was expecting a severe move towards 4100 and a momentary touch of 4000 levels also and that did not happen though the overall pattern suggested bearishness. The fact that these levels were not breached, really questioned the very theory of bears controlling and I was expecting a close similar to that of the last expiry and in the end it was a clear 100 points down from that level.
What next is the big question now?
It is again in the wait and watch mode. Is this move just an expiry move or a genuine pull back needs to be ascertained before taking further positions.
In any case, I dont expect this market to go beyond 4450 in the short term and should retest 4000 levels soon. With this view, let us see how the market spans.

Happy Trading

Monthly Chart – June 2009

Thursday, June 25th, 2009


Thursday, June 25th, 2009

It was a surprise move yesterday and the expected weakness was not seen in NIFTY.

NIFTY almost reached 4325 levels yesterday, what I thought was a very very remote possibility. It looks like it can break that level at open itself as sgx nifty is suggesting. not sure if it will have enough strength today to push it to 4450 levels.
A good expiry level would be 4337, same as that of last month.

Resistance levels : 4325, 4352, 4395

Support levels : 4280, 4265, 4236

Happy Trading

Bearish view maintained for expiry. NIFTY can break 4100 levels today ?!

Wednesday, June 24th, 2009

NIFTY was unable to move past 4275 level which was also established as a strong resistance in the previous session.
Though yesterday’s move looks bullish, the undercurrent and the overall pattern suggests that this is going to be an expiry favouring bears and we are going to see new lows for the month in these two days and the close of tomorrow could also be the lowest close for the entire june series.
Having said this, though the possibility looks very very remote, any move beyond 4325 would bring in extreme bullishness and can push NIFTY to even 4450 levels.
I hold my view that we will see a break of 4100 levels and can even momentarily break 4000 levels before this expiry tomorrow.

Happy Trading

Bears totally controlling this expiry. Would it break 4000 levels soon ?!

Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009

The bear trap made in the last 45 minutes on friday was totally nullified yesterday and it has proven the fact that, the move was only to throw away weak bears from the market.
Having said this, it is now expected that NIFTY can have three consequtive lower close into this expiry, reaching sub-4000 also. It seems like a possibility now.

Resistance levels : 4274, 4297

Support levels : 4197, 4156, 4117

Happy Trading

Entering into the expiry zone…Is it going to be bearish than bullish ?!

Monday, June 22nd, 2009

Bears were made to run for cover in the last 45 minutes of trade on friday and the close was almost at the day’s high. The short squeeze was so intense that the move happened so fast.
Now clearly all the late bears of the last two sessions are trapped heavily again and we are entering into the expiry week.
Does this mean we would only see a higher close from this point for the expiry?
I dont think so.
The intensity with which 4450 levels were broken on the downside earlier points to clear weakness and this friday move could also be to throw the late bears or weak bears out of the markets.
At this juncture, 4375 is going to act as a strong resistance and this level should not be crossed in the next three days for a lower expiry. Any break below 4251 and 4222 levels would impart weakness and will push NIFTY to test 4117 levels immediately.

Resistance levels : 4353, 4375

Support levels : 4282, 4251, 4222, 4197

Happy Trading

Would this be a one more black day?!

Friday, June 19th, 2009

Yesterday again markets moved in line with the expectation and closed in red. Could today also be another day where we will significantly close lower testing 4117 levels?
The patterns suggests so.
Any break of 4150 levels at this stage would immediately let NIFTY test 4117 levels which should act as a strong support.

Resistance levels : 4288, 4307, 4356

Support levels : 4197, 4151, 4117

Happy Trading

Crucial support levels broken..NIFTY heading lower ?!

Thursday, June 18th, 2009

It was a victory for the bears and a great blow for the bulls yesterday as 4450 level was comfortably broken without even a slight bounce.
Pattern-wise also this move has turned completely bearish and 4438 is now a major resistance level and it is unlikely that NIFTY can move past that.
The five day pattern also denotes an extremely bearish move to follow and it is now clear that as long as 4450 is not reached, this is a sell on rise market.
The volatility seems to be increasing again and if at all there is another close above 4450, it is safe to sit on the sidelines and watch for sometime rather than trying to participate in the move.

Resistance levels : 4389, 4418, 4451

Support levels : 4276, 4236, 4196

Happy Trading