Archive for September, 2009

Another close above 5000 levels..Should wait and watch

Wednesday, September 30th, 2009

Markets yesterday nullified the bull trap made in the previous session and opened up for another bullish move with a strong close above 5000 levels.
The volumes are remaining low and it certainly looks like a wait and watch scenario before making the next move as there are no clear signs of a strong move either side.

Resistance levels : 5020, 5036

Support levels : 4999, 4979, 4947

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Consolidation and a range bound market in this short week ?

Tuesday, September 29th, 2009

On friday, the first day of the october series, there were clear moves in market indicating indecisiveness on both the bullish and bearish fronts.
Looking at the intraday charts, there seems to be a strong bull trap at 4979 levels and a bear trap at the day’s low of 4934 levels.
Though at this point it might be too early to call for the next trend and there are initial signs of weakness setting in for a bearish move, there might be some more consolidation and an increase in intraday volatility going forward and markets to remain range bound in this short trading week of three sessions.
Resistance levels : 4979, 4999, 5020

Support levels : 4947, 4927, 4918

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Updating blog…Please visit in another 10 mts.. http://blog.tripleint.com

Tuesday, September 29th, 2009

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End of another series and beginning of new one. What to expect ?!

Friday, September 25th, 2009

Another remarkable series came to an end yesterday almost closing near 5000 mark. Finally it was victory for both the expiry pattern and also the PCR as mentioned in the opinion yesterday.
The pattern was suggesting a bullish move and PCR was suggesting a sub-5000 close and finally both proved to be correct.
September series totally went in favour of put writers and at one point the PCR anamoly went as high as 1.77 and it did prove that put buyers were the suppliers for the whole series.
Now that a new series has started and we are entering the new territory with more bears in pain and fresh bulls waiting to charge, at this point in time it points more to a range bound market with 4800 levels offering support.

Resistance levels : 4999, 5030, 5041

Support levels : 4950, 4939, 4918

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www.tripleint.com

Monthly Chart – September 2009

Thursday, September 24th, 2009

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5000+ close for Sep series. Will this be a reality ?!

Thursday, September 24th, 2009

Yesterday markets made the expected bearish move and now it looks like after setting the bearish tone one day before expiry, all heads start to look downwards.
A discount of around 6 pts and SGX at 4927 all point to the milestone of 5000+ for september series expiry a distant target, but then this might also be the final bear trap for this series and there is a good potential for Nifty to close around 5000 levels and as of now 5020 also seems to be a possibility.
The glitch is that the OI in 5000 puts has decreased by more than 36% yesterday and the OI in 5000 call has increased by 11%, suggesting even a sub-5000 expiry. It is a fight between the bullish expiry pattern theory and PCR right now and I favour a bullish close today.
Resistance levels : 4972, 4999, 5020

Support levels : 4950, 4939, 4918

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

A bearish move today before bulls take it higher tomorrow ?!

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

Nifty again had a great up move yesterday and closed above 5000 levels.
Today there might be some consolidation or even a bearish move before bulls charge for tomorrow.
Right from 4500, all the puts till 5000 strike were written during this series and it now looks highly likely that even the 5000 puts could expire worthless.
There could be a move below 5000 levels today and even a close below that, but bulls could regain control and push it to above 5000 expiry tomorrow.

Resistance levels : 5030, 5041

Support levels : 4999, 4972, 4950

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

View intact..Bulls to charge finally after consolidation for this expiry

Tuesday, September 22nd, 2009

Markets did not make any significant move on friday and consolidated around 4972 levels.
The view remains the same for this expiry. We can see some consolidation today and tomorrow and there might even be a move below 4900 to write more of 4900 puts and make it worthless for this expiry.
The PCR ratio is at 1.65, favouring bulls and though there was enough writing in 5000 puts, it might be early to decide the expiry to be above 5000 levels.

Resistance levels : 4987, 4999

Support levels : 4950, 4939, 4918

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Happy Trading
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Consolidation now and a bullish close for the expiry next week ?!

Friday, September 18th, 2009

Nifty tested 5000 levels yesterday and that almost completes the momentum leg that we have been looking for right from 4580 levels.
Though there is not much of a downside forseen for this expiry and it is highly likely that the expiry is going to be above 4900 levels, it is difficult to say at this stage whether it will be above 5000 levels also.
Since we have seen during the entire series, it is put sellers market, for another day or two nifty might consolidate and we can also see 5000 puts being written considerably. If that happens, there is a good probability that the expiry will be near 5000 levels, the final bull move to come on the expiry thursday.
The PCR today stands at 1.54, cooling off a bit, but then the largest accumulation seen in 4600 and lesser strike puts are all almost worthless even now and it is going to be the fight between 4900 puts and 5000 calls and Nifty could move in a tight range.

Resistance levels : 4972, 4987

Support levels : 4950, 4939, 4918

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

Nifty to attempt and scale 5000 peak !!

Thursday, September 17th, 2009

Yesterday markets saw more of the momentum run and it is highly likely to continue today by Nifty attempting to scale the 5000 peak
The intraday pattern also looks very powerful for the past two days as the amount of retracement shown is very minimal.
Having seen this, we are getting into a territory where the last bear might turn a bull and would want to ride the momentum wave and so a correction of 100-150 points is also due early next week. So it would be better to book out profits at this stage and wait for the correction for reentry.
The build up in call seems to be still very low and this month is proving to be a put sellers market rather than a call buyers market as the appreciation in most of the out of the money calls is still very low for the price move that we have seen.

Resistance levels : 4991, 5021

Support levels : 4939, 4918, 4890

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com