Archive for November, 2009

Back to 4950, 5050 game between bulls and bears

Monday, November 30th, 2009

Nifty on friday corrected significantly intraday and bulls were then able to push it towards the end to reach almost 4950 levels. 
4950 has been mentioned as the level of consolidation and the expected momentum is likely to get established and push the markets further up in the short term.
Any break and close above 5050 on the upside will be the indicator of a strong up move and till that point in time, Nifty could also hover around 4865 – 5050 levels. 
A break and close below 4845 will bring in bearishness which is unlikely to happen in the short term.

Resistance levels : 5007, 5023, 5050

Support levels : 4924, 4896, 4865  


Happy Trading

Update on all expiry views

Saturday, November 28th, 2009
December 2009
Predicted Move: BULLISH
Predicted Close: 5235
Actual Move: BULLISH
Actual Close: 5201

November 2009
Predicted Move: BULLISH
Predicted Close: 5159
Actual Move: BEARISH
Actual Close: 5006
October 2009
Predicted Move: BEARISH
Predicted Close: 4734
Actual Move: BEARISH
Actual Close: 4751
September 2009
Predicted Move: BULLISH
Predicted Close: 5020
Actual Move: BULLISH
Actual Close: 4987
August 2009
Predicted Move: BEARISH
Predicted Close: 4636
Actual Move: BULLISH
Actual Close: 4688
July 2009
Predicted Move: BULLISH
Predicted Close: 4560 or higher
Actual Move: BULLISH
Actual Close: 4571
June 2009
Expiry value updated in the comment section
Predicted Move: BEARISH
Predicted Close: 4337
Actual Move: BEARISH
Actual Close: 4242
May 2009
On vacation. Expiry view not available.
April 2009
Predicted Move: BULLISH
Predicted Close: Not clear
Actual Move: BULLISH
Actual Close: 3474
March 2009
Predicted Move: BULLISH
Predicted Close: 3075-3100
Actual Move: BULLISH
Actual Close: 3082

A totally bear dominated expiry and the beginning of a new series..What next?

Friday, November 27th, 2009

Contrary to the expectation of bulls pushing Nifty to a new high and close for the expiry, it was the turn of bears that took complete control and pushed Nifty even to sub-5000 levels.
Now that a new series has begun, lot of pessimism has already set in. It still doesnt look like a straight fall from the levels that we have seen. Around 4885 levels, as mentioned earlier, should provide support and it is likely that markets will consolidate around 4950 levels for a final push towards a new high. The reasoning is again that there has not been widespread increase in volume and momentum has not yet kicked in.
It is better to wait and watch for a few more sessions before making any directional bet.

Resistance levels : 5023, 5050, 5066

Support levels : 4950, 4924, 4882

Happy Trading

Monthly Chart – November 2009

Thursday, November 26th, 2009


A 5159 close ?! Will bulls be able to give the final push for the expiry ?!!

Thursday, November 26th, 2009

Yesterday’s pattern almost looks like a mirror image of day before yesterday’s pattern and Nifty also made attempt to test new high for the series and has also closed above 5100 levels for the second time in this series.
The PCR has increased to 1.33, denoting more activity on the put side yesterday than the calls and there was widespread unwinding seen in 5100 calls and also some accumulation in the 5100 puts. FIIs have bought index futures worth around 400 cr.
At the time of writing SGX Nifty is testing the crucial resistance of 5080 and has already set the bearish tone (falsely ?) for the day.
Given all this scenario, if the entire series is taken into consideration, bulls have established a strong upperhand and bears have been waiting for a strong pull back throughout this series. The undercurrent is still very much bullish and it is highly likely that bulls will take complete control towards the end of the session and can also push Nifty to a close around 5159 levels.

Resistance levels : 5121, 5138, 5159

Support levels : 5080, 5063, 5050


Happy Trading

Another neutral day before bulls can charge for the expiry tomorrow ?!

Wednesday, November 25th, 2009

Yesterday markets saw heightened intraday volatility and the key level of 5060 was broken twice before bulls took control again and pushed it higher.
There was a huge increase in the OI for 5100 puts, and there is also a slight increase in the OI for 5100 calls. Both 5000 put and call have shed OI. So does it all point to the action to revolve around 5100 more than 5000?
It is also being established (falsely?!) that 5100 is a tough nut to crack and may be today also there could be a neutral or even a bearish move to substantiate this theory and tomorrow it could be the turn of the bulls to charge and look for a close higher than 5100.
FIIs have been net sellers of 250 cr in index futures and net buyers of 100 cr in index options. This does not give any strong indication of the direction for these two days, but overall it could be the turn of bulls to push markets higher from whereever it is left today.
Resistance levels : 5111, 5127, 5140

Support levels : 5080, 5063, 5050


Happy Trading

Markets to stay under the control of bulls with heightened volatility ?!

Tuesday, November 24th, 2009

It was a decisive victory for the bulls yesterday and they were able to hold the markets above another key level of 5080 for almost the whole session right after an hour of trading.
The late entrant bears of friday and also the bears in the opening session of yesterday are all trapped and this could see the markets reaching a higher levels of 5127 or even 5140 amidst heightened intraday volatility, but it could also be difficult to sustain to these levels if the move happens and a doji close is also a possibility for the day.
A move below 5060 is not expected and it is still a buy if that happens for this series.
Overall, market is still under the control of bulls with a neutral view for the day.
The PCR is at 1.21, again due to the increase in the put activity yesterday. FIIs have been net buyers of 400 cr in index futures and 300 cr in index options. They have also sold stock futures worth 300 cr. Overall this points to bullishness, but need to wait for two more trading days before concluding if 5100 calls will expire in the money.

Resistance levels : 5127, 5140

Support levels : 5085, 5063  

Happy Trading

Bears completely trapped… Bulls to control the expiry and Nifty all set to move higher?!

Monday, November 23rd, 2009

Friday, it finally proved that the buy on dips strategy worked out well. The intraday pattern suggests that bears have been completely trapped and it is bulls who will decide this expiry move.
Now that the weak bulls have been thrown out of the system and also new shorts have been built, it is possible that during this week, markets can move up without much of retracement also and it is also possible to test the high of 5182 in the remaining four days triggered by short squeeze.
The PCR has come down to 1.10 and though this is neutral, there has been a wide spread activity in 5100 call on friday. FII data analysis seems mixed. They have been net sellers both in the equity as well as index futures on friday and have largely accumulated options worth around Rs. 800 crores. 
Overall it looks like an expiry controlled by bulls and we should wait for a couple of more sessions to ascertain on the call strike which would expiry in the money.

Resistance levels : 5079, 5111, 5127 

Support levels : 5045, 5024, 5007  

Happy Trading

A strong correction yesterday before the rally next week ?!

Friday, November 20th, 2009

Yesterday’s pull back, a very strong one has raised concerns on the overall rally and it is beginning to convince a major section of bears that the rally did not have any legs and could not sustain.
Also 5075 has been shown as a strong resistance which cannot be penetrated easily. 
In addition to this the PCR has also come down to 1.32 from 1.50 levels and there has been a large amount of unwinding seen in majority of the puts yesterday. FII’s are net sellers of roughly 700 crores in index futures.
Does this all point to more of a correction coming in? Overall it doesnt seem so. The very fact that Nifty was pushed to levels beyond 4950 and having let it stay above that level for a longer period with lower volumes indicate that there is more upside to this rally and as of now it is again a buy on dips. Only on a break below 4885 would large sell off set in and it looks remote currently.

Resistance levels : 5007, 5024, 5045

Support levels : 4969, 4945, 4924

Happy Trading

Bulls getting stronger !! Will they be able to push Nifty to a new high ?!!

Thursday, November 19th, 2009

Bulls are getting stronger on each consolidation and they are still holding the 5035 fort.
The resistance at 5074 level has been tested multiple times and any retest of that level will straight away push Nifty to 5111 levels and beyond.
The PCR has increased to 1.50 levels and FIIs have been both buyers in equity and index futures to the tune of Rs. 400 crores each.
Looking at all this, it now points to a very strong bullish move before this series and it is also highly likely that the momentum could sustain to see a new high on charts for Nifty before this expiry.
There might also be a pull back move to threaten weak bulls at this stage and also to build more shorts before pushing Nifty to new highs. This points to more of a buy on dips right now.

Resistance levels : 5074, 5111, 5127

Support levels : 5035, 5010, 4980


Happy Trading