Archive for February, 2010

A neutral close…Both bulls and bears tamed for the expiry…

Friday, February 26th, 2010

The expiry day saw markets confined in the tight range of 4838 and 4880 and finally closed a shade above the previous close.
Though as mentioned in yesterday’s post, Infosys gave a strong spike towards the end, it was not good enough for the markets to be pushed beyond the levels of 4865.
Now that the historic volatility is again shrinking back to lower levels since the consolidation has been for a while, it might be time for the march series to see heightened volatility expansion and a strong move either side. A break and close above 4950 levels might start a new uptrend going forward and a close below 4785 a new downtrend.
Resistance levels : 4885, 4905, 4930

Support levels : 4845, 4823, 4805

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Monthly Chart – February 2010

Thursday, February 25th, 2010

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Penultimate session saw neutral moves…Entering into expiry …

Thursday, February 25th, 2010

Nifty has been tightly hovering in a range taking strong support at the 20 DMA around 4838. Bears could not take advantage of the gap down move of yesterday and it again ended on a neutral note.
Looking at the options data, 4900 call and 4800 put recorded huge transaction on the 19th and since then the time premium has been eroding in both the options steadily as market has been hovering in the range. This points to the fact that both options could have been written on that day.
4900 call saw huge unwinding yesterday with the highest transaction for the month and 4900 put has seen accumulation and this is pointing to some amount of bullishness as we get into the expiry day.
Infosys has been the major heavy weight used to move Nifty intraday for this series and it is likely to be the key mover today also.
Resistance levels : 4885, 4905, 4930

Support levels : 4845, 4838, 4823

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

Markets swaying around 20 DMA. Bears to push markets down…

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

Yesterday saw markets do a reverse of what was done the previous day. It had a gap down opening, but then markets bounced back before it could reach the target of 4823, 4805 on the downside.
The bounce was also not strong enough to push the markets further high beyond the key resistance level of 4885.
Markets have been moving closely around the 20 DMA which is currently at 4838 for the past five sessions and have not indicated on a strong directional move with any move on one side being nullified by an equal move on the other side.
There has been large accumulation seen in 4800 puts yesterday and a move below 4823 would indicate strong hands have accumulated and can push markets further below to 4805 and 4785 levels.
Resistance levels : 4875, 4885, 4905

Support levels : 4823, 4805, 4785

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

Strong up move nullified in the day’s session. Bears stance strengthening…

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

Yesterday markets saw a gap up opening and bulls immediately pushed markets to the key level of 4914, though bulls were unable to reach and break the strong resistance level of 4930.
It was expected that any strong move on one side to be nullified by an equally strong move on the other side, but then the way that happened in the same session has given an undue advantage to the bears at this stage.
There has been unwinding in the near strike puts of 4800 and 4700, and accumulation seen in 4900 and 5000 calls. This is also indicating that bears position is strengthening for this expiry.
It could now be the turn of bears to push markets to lower levels of 4823, 4805 and even 4785 levels and based on the accumulation seen in puts then, it could be the turn of bulls to fight back.
Resistance levels : 4868, 4885, 4905

Support levels : 4823, 4805, 4785

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

Markets resting at key level of 4845…Bulls to push markets higher today?!

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

The markets swayed wildly on friday and finally settled at 4845 a key level and also just below the 20 DMA.
Also the swift move happened towards the end from the key support level of 4805 towards the day high.
As given in the weekly writeup, markets can see a rally and another attempt to scale 4930 levels. Going forward there will be heightened volatility and swift intraday moves and as of now a strong move on any one side could be nullified by an equally strong move on the other side in the next session.
Resistance levels : 4887, 4914, 4930

Support levels : 4823, 4805, 4785

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

Entering into the expiry zone…Bulls and bears equally poised?!

Sunday, February 21st, 2010
Last session witnessed strong intraday volatility and in the end, the week ended on an almost doji note with both the bulls and bears not able to close the markets in their favour.
Though bears were able to push the markets below the indicated level of 4823, it was more of short lived and bulls were able to charge back, but not to the extent of triggering the next round of squeeze and the markets finally settled the week on a neutral note at 4845.
The weekly charts are indicating some bullishness and also a move towards 4985, 5035 levels.
On the other hand, Nifty has been struggling to move past the crucial resistance level of 4930 and bears are trying to pull it down at every opportunity as mentioned in
With the implied volatility of both put and call ruling at almost 30 and the PCR near 1 (volume PCR is 0.94 and open interest PCR at 1.03) for the February series, the current stance is that both bulls and bears are equally poised for this expiry and any move on one side could be nullified by an equally opposite move on the other side in the subsequent session.
The levels to watchout for the week are
Resistance levels : 4930, 4985, 5035

Support levels : 4805, 4768, 4717

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

A deciding day between bulls and bears for this expiry ?!

Friday, February 19th, 2010

Yesterday markets were confined between a small range and looks like bulls after triggering the short squeeze in the earlier sessions are taking rest over and above the 20 DMA.
Today’s trade might give a clear picture on how this expiry will span out.
There might be a strong move either side and the decisive move will be whether bulls are able to charge higher than 4953 levels and bears are able to push the markets below 4823 levels.
There could be an early session move near to 4845 levels and bulls can start taking control from that level and push Nifty higher.
Resistance levels : 4914, 4930, 4953

Support levels : 4866, 4845, 4823

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Happy Trading
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Short covering move till 4930 levels complete…Will bears regain control ?!

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Yesterday markets witnessed the short squeeze move and exactly reached the target of 4930 levels and bears took over. Though the bearish moves towards the end appeared strong, bulls were able to regain 4900 levels and also managed to close above the 20 DMA.
Since the intensity with which the moves happened in the past two days is severe, it is more likely that markets would make further attempt to break away either side rather than consolidation around the 20 DMA (currently at 4883) at this stage and there are more chances of a strong bearish move in the near term.
Resistance levels : 4930, 4953, 4986

Support levels : 4885, 4845, 4823

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

Bulls finally charged triggering the short squeeze …Bears to fight back ?!

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010

The initial part of the day saw bears taking upperhand and not allowing bulls to move past the key level of 4825 and markets testing sub-4800 levels.
But on Nifty reaching 4845 levels, the short term boundary, the short squeeze happened and pushed markets to the next level of around 4885 levels.
Since the squeeze is powerful enough, there are strong chances of markets to penetrate 4900 levels and reach the next target of 4930, but then an even more powerful bearish move is expected to pull down the markets going forward.
Only on a strong close above 4985 levels would change the short term bearish trend. As of now it is sell at higher levels.
Resistance levels : 4885, 4917, 4930

Support levels : 4845, 4823, 4805

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com