A robust performance in the month of September 2012.
End of September Series and beginning of October Series – What to Expect?
There were very few trades for the month as I took a long break inbetween. Out of the 7 trades, 4 were profitable and 3 ended up in loss. With a starting capital of Rs.30000, the final profits for the month stand at Rs.8877.50
What went right for the month?
The picks initially gave good returns in expected lines and towards the end losses were controlled well and the positions were closed when it was turning against us indicated by the system. This resulted in a healthy return of Rs.8877.5 out of the initial investment of Rs.30000. There were quite a few trades only during the month and we were able to acheive a far greater return than last month and this is also an example of more need not necessarily be good as far as number of trades are concerned.
What went wrong for the month?
1. The expiry trades were not succesful, eventhough the losses were limited well ahead taking cues from the changing system.
2. The EDUCOMP trade was giving a return of around 200%, we failed to cash in the day before and let it expire worthless.
Learnings and how do we move forward
1. We learnt from the last time experience to carefully limit the risk of trades on the expiry day and that paid off well towards the end. We were able to protect the profits as well as the capital on the expiry day by risking only a small portion of the already booked profits.
2. CANBK option proved to be a huge success. Though the 320 option was exit much earlier at Rs. 18.1, it went on to cross more than Rs. 100. A greater return expectation can be set in options during the start of the month and towards the end, the return expectation need to be curtailed as we saw with EDUCOMP.
3. There were quite a few technical glitches faces here and now with the Live system, Position details and they have been rectified. As we progress, the goal is to eliminate all such glitches.
How does it look like for the October series
As we enter the October series, there is still some amount of bullishness left to begin with as pointed by TripleInt’s option trading system.
Nifty September Expiry Charts
The expiry charts can be found at the following link
http://tripleint.com/nifty-27-sep-2012-expiry-chart/
Performance for the month of September
| Date Open | Date
Closed |
Scrip | Option
Type |
Strike | Expiry | Num Lots * Lot
size |
Entry Price | Exit Price | Total
Investment |
Profit/Loss | Comment |
| 04 Sep 2012,10:14 am | 05 Sep 2012, 3:25 pm | NIFTY | PE | 5200.00 | 27SEP2012 | 3 * 50(150) | 56 | 60.35 | 8400 | 652.5 | Nifty likely to test 5190 levels. Strength in support at 5300 decreasing Update at 3:25: Cover 3 lots at CMP of 60.35 |
| 07-Sep-2012,10:07 am | 10-Sep-2012,9:29 am | NIFTY | CE | 5400.00 | 27SEP2012 | 4 * 50(200) | 42.50 | 50.25 | 8500 | 1550 | System indicated upmove for the month started. With a closer stop a good reward:risk trade Update at 9:29 am- Cover all 4 lots at CMP of 50.25. OI Resitance at 5350 increasing |
| 11 Sep 2012,10:01 am | 11 Sep 2012, 3:00 pm | NIFTY | CE | 5400.00 | 27SEP2012 | 5 * 50(250) | 42 | 62.3 | 10500 | 5075 | Bullish move expected in NIFTY. System indicating an up trend Closing Comment: Target hit. |
| 07-Sep-2012,12:07 pm | 14-Sep-2012,10.00 am | CANBK | CE | 320.00 | 27SEP2012 | 1 * 500(500) | 10 | 18.1 | 5000 | 4050 | Strong bullish pattern emerging with divergence. Likely to reach 342.50 in spot for the series Update on 12th Sep: Target revised to 18.1 |
| 27-Sep-2012,10:42 am | 27-Sep-2012,11:20 am | NIFTY | PE | 5700.00 | 27SEP2012 | 2 * 50(100) | 27 | 21.3 | 2700 | -570 | Likely to test 5634 levels before expiry. Update at 11:14am: Since the OI data is changing the position can be closed at CMP of 21.30 |
| Date Open | Date
Closed |
Scrip | Option
Type |
Strike | Expiry | Num Lots * Lot
size |
Entry Price | Exit Price | Total
Investment |
Profit/Loss | Comment |
| 27-Sep-2012,11:45 am | 27-Sep-2012,12:18 pm | NIFTY | CE | 5700.00 | 27SEP2012 | 4 * 50(200) | 15.4 | 11 | 3080 | -880 | OI data changing to indicate a rally. Buying calls. Update at 12:19. Can cover the position at CMP of 11. As of
now no indication of market going strong in any direction. Better to stay out. |
| 25-Sep-2012, 3:16 pm | 27-Sep-2012, 3:30 pm | EDUCOMP | CE | 170.00 | 27SEP2012 | 1 * 2000(2000) | 0.50 | 0 | 1000 | -1000 | Looking bullish. Might start the upmove again tomorrow and close higher for expiry day after |
| Overall Profit/Loss | Rs.8877.5 |
System data at the beginning of October Series
========
Underlying Index: NIFTY 5649.50 As
on Sep 27 2012 15:30:21 IST =========
| Set-1 | NIFTY | Overall Buy | |||||||||
| ## | SPOT | 5649 | Puts | Calls | IV Skew | OI Skew | IV Skew | OI Skew | Overall | IV Skew% | |
| ## | 5649 | 5100 | 6000 | CALL | PUT | -20.73 | 2,081,000 | -82.46 | |||
| ## | 5649 | 5200 | 5900 | CALL | CALL | -7.95 | -469,650 | CALL | -25.11 | ||
| ## | 5649 | 5300 | 5800 | CALL | CALL | -2.45 | -365,900 | CALL | -7.47 | ||
| ## | 5649 | 5400 | 5700 | CALL | CALL | -2.33 | -725,200 | CALL | -7.29 | ||
| ## | ## | 5500 | 5600 | CALL | CALL | -1.61 | -3,275,800 | CALL | -5.03 | ||
| Set-2 | NIFTY | Overall Buy | |||||||||
| ## | SPOT | 5649 | Puts | Calls | IV Skew | OI Skew | IV Skew | OI Skew | Overall | IV Skew% | |
| ## | 5649 | 5100 | 5900 | CALL | PUT | -21.76 | 1,363,800 | -85.42 | |||
| ## | 5649 | 5200 | 5800 | CALL | PUT | -7.83 | 780,600 | -24.72 | |||
| ## | 5649 | 5300 | 5700 | CALL | CALL | -2.44 | -2,150,100 | CALL | -7.44 | ||
| ## | 5649 | 5400 | 5600 | CALL | CALL | -2.72 | -3,746,700 | CALL | -8.46 | ||
| ## | ## | 5500 | 5500 | CALL | CALL | -2.16 | -4,300,700 | CALL | -6.68 | ||
| Set-3 | NIFTY | Overall Buy | |||||||||
| ## | SPOT | 5649 | Puts | Calls | IV Skew | OI Skew | IV Skew | OI Skew | Overall | IV Skew% | |
| ## | 5649 | 5200 | 6000 | CALL | PUT | -6.92 | 247,550 | -22.22 | |||
| ## | 5649 | 5300 | 5900 | CALL | CALL | -2.57 | -1,616,150 | CALL | -7.84 | ||
| ## | 5649 | 5400 | 5800 | CALL | PUT | -2.34 | 1,059,000 | -7.33 | |||
| ## | 5649 | 5500 | 5700 | CALL | CALL | -1.22 | -254,300 | CALL | -3.84 | ||
| ## | ## | 5600 | 5600 | CALL | CALL | -1.06 | -2,250,900 | CALL | -3.34 | ||
| Set-4 | NIFTY | Overall Buy | |||||||||
| ## | SPOT | 5649 | Puts | Calls | IV Skew | OI Skew | IV Skew | OI Skew | Overall | IV Skew% | |
| ## | 5649 | 5200 | 6100 | CALL | CALL | -8.67 | -1,747,150 | CALL | -26.79 | ||
| ## | 5649 | 5300 | 6000 | CALL | CALL | -1.54 | -898,950 | CALL | -4.78 | ||
| ## | 5649 | 5400 | 5900 | CALL | CALL | -2.46 | -191,250 | CALL | -7.71 | ||
| ## | 5649 | 5500 | 5800 | CALL | PUT | -1.23 | 1,529,900 | -3.87 | |||
| ## | ## | 5600 | 5700 | CALL | PUT | -0.67 | 770,600 | -2.13 |
Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com