Archive for the ‘Aug2012Series’ Category

End of August series and beginning of September – What to expect?

Thursday, August 30th, 2012

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Happy Trading www.tripleint.com

It was a roller-coaster ride for our returns in the month of August. With a starting capital of Rs.30000, the final profits for the month stand at Rs.3107.50.

What went right for the month?

The beginning of the month started on a very positive note with TripleInt’s system giving a strong buy signal and was able to peak around Rs.18000 in profits with closer risk and money management according to the trading plan.

What went wrong for the month?

From a peak profits of Rs.18000 we ended the month with a profit of Rs.3107.50. There was a strong drawdown and the following are the reasons.
1. The expiry view and trades went wrong costing us around Rs.8000 of the profits
2. Some of the stock options, though were in profit zone initially became illiquid at a later stage.
3. The targets for the stock options were set very aggressively.
4. More focus was given to the returns rather than the percentage of success for the trades. This was resulting in a bigger drawdown when the positions turned against us.

Learnings and how do we move forward

1. The risk amount for the expiry was large, though we were having profits of more than Rs.12000 one day before the expiry.
2. Options are to be chosen as even more liquid ones. Though at the time of buying they were liquid, when the position moved against or stayed at the same price, they became illiquid.

How does it look like for the September series

As we enter the September series, there is some amount of bullishness to begin with and it is likely that markets will move up in this series. TripleInt’s option trading system is giving the following data.
We will look for the right opportunity to initiate long trades to begin with.

======== Underlying Index: NIFTY 5315.05  As on Aug 30 2012 15:30:51 IST =========

Set-1 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5315 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5315 4800 5700 CALL CALL -21.57 -1,069,100 CALL -50.00
## 5315 4900 5600 CALL PUT -8.71 1,952,300 -13.14
## 5315 5000 5500 CALL PUT -27.12 140,050 -110.63
## 5315 5100 5400 CALL CALL -26.04 -822,300 CALL -109.30
## ## 5200 5300 CALL CALL -18.19 -5,374,850 CALL -64.07
Set-2 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5315 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5315 4800 5600 CALL PUT -30.28 2,164,500 -115.86
## 5315 4900 5500 CALL PUT -7.04 1,308,100 -11.19
## 5315 5000 5400 CALL CALL -26.73 -820,850 CALL -109.83
## 5315 5100 5300 CALL CALL -26.58 -3,872,200 CALL -112.80
## ## 5200 5200 CALL CALL -22.00 -7,906,900 CALL -81.72
Set-3 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5315 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5315 4900 5700 PUT CALL 0.00 -1,281,300 0.00
## 5315 5000 5600 CALL PUT -28.79 784,250 -115.11
## 5315 5100 5500 CALL PUT -26.43 138,600 -110.16
## 5315 5200 5400 CALL CALL -17.65 -2,324,950 CALL -61.35
## ## 5300 5300 CALL CALL -14.38 -2,842,800 CALL -47.89
Set-4 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5315 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5315 4900 5800 PUT CALL 0.00 -1,281,300 0.00
## 5315 5000 5700 CALL CALL -20.08 -2,449,350 CALL -50.00
## 5315 5100 5600 CALL PUT -28.10 782,800 -114.84
## 5315 5200 5500 CALL CALL -18.04 -1,364,050 CALL -62.18
## ## 5300 5400 CALL PUT -13.84 207,100 -45.45

Performance – Position details

Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
27 Jul 2012, 1:45 pm 30 Jul 2012, 9:30 am NIFTY CE 5200.00 30AUG2012 5 * 50(250) 62.90 75.10 15725 3050 Bullish move expected in NIFTY with gapup on Monday
06 Aug 2012, 9.22 am 08 Aug 2012, 10.14 am BHARTIARTL PE 280.00 30AUG2012 2 * 1000(2000) 2.8 7.1 5600 8600 Strong bearish pattern seen. A handsome profit on the position though an early exit
13 Aug 2012, 1:23 pm 13 Aug 2012, 2:40 pm NIFTY CE 5400.00 30AUG2012 7 * 50(350) 34.5 44 12075 3325 Nifty looking bullish from this point.Likely to move higher.Target hit
8 Aug 2012, 10:45 am 14 Aug 2012, 2:00 pm NTPC CE 170.00 30AUG2012 1 * 2000(2000) 3.2 5 6400 3600 Closing Comment: Though update sent for a close of 5.35, was able to close only at 5. Updated that as exit price
8 Aug 2012, 11:05 am 17 Aug 2012, 2:40 pm GAIL CE 380.00 30AUG2012 1 * 1000(1000) 3.45 1.2 3450 -2250 The Spot is expected to reach 390 levels before the close of this series. Closing comment: Stop loss hit on position.
Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
14 Aug 2012, 11:35 am 21 Aug 2012, 9:40 am ITC CE 270.00 30AUG2012 1 * 1000(1000) 3 6 3000 -2200 Strong bullish pattern seen. Target of 275 for this series.
CLOSING COMMENT: Stop Loss hit
16 Aug 2012, 10:38 am 21 Aug 2012, 9:40 am ITC CE 270.00 30AUG2012 4 * 1000(4000) 1.6 6 6400 -3200 Strong bullish pattern seen. Target of 275 for this series.
CLOSING COMMENT: Stop Loss hit
21 Aug 2012, 9:30 am 21 Aug 2012, 3:00 pm NIFTY CE 5400.00 30AUG2012 3 * 50(150) 47 62.40 7050 2310 System giving support at 5363 levels. Can go long with a closer stop loss.
TARGET CHANGE COMMENT: Cover 3 lots of NIFTY at 62.40 and remaining 3 lots of NIFTY at 75.40 instead of the original target of 78.
Update at 3pm: First target of 62.40 hit. Covered 3 lots.
Remaining 3 lots closed at 3:20 pm price 66.05
Overall Profit on position Rs.5167.50
21 Aug 2012, 9:30 am 21 Aug 2012, 3:20 pm NIFTY CE 5400.00 30AUG2012 3 * 50(150) 47 66.05 7050 2857.5 System giving support at 5363 levels. Can go long with a closer stop loss.
TARGET CHANGE COMMENT: Cover 3 lots of NIFTY at 62.40 and remaining 3 lots of NIFTY at 75.40 instead of the original target of 78.
Update at 3pm: First target of 62.40 hit. Covered 3 lots.
Remaining 3 lots closed at 3:20 pm price 66.05
Overall Profit on position Rs.5167.50
23 Aug 2012,11:30 am 23 Aug 2012, 12:50 pm NIFTY CE 5400.00 30AUG2012 6 * 50(300) 37 32.8 11100 -1260 NIFTY showing strength, With a closer stop a good reward:risk trade
Closing Comment Update at 12:50 System indicating a reversal in trend. Cover all lots (STOP LOSS) at CMP of 32.8
Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
13 Aug 2012, 10:05 am 24 Aug 2012, 3:00 pm GAIL CE 380.00 30AUG2012 1 * 1000(1000) 3.6 0.70 3600 -2900 The Spot is expected to reach 390 levels before the close of this series
Closing Comment: Stop Loss hit on position.
28-Aug-2012,11:35 am 28 Aug 2012, 1:05 pm NIFTY CE 5300.00 30AUG2012 4 * 50(200) 62 47 12400 -3000 System changing to support at 5350 levels…Nifty expected to reach 5369 levels
Closing Comment: System reversed to favour puts and Stop Loss hit on position
29 Aug 2012,10:18 am 29 Aug 2012, 1:19 pm NIFTY PE 5400.00 30AUG2012 1 * 50(50) 62 94 3100 1600 Support at 5350 reduced. Market likely to break 5300 levels before expiry
Update at 1:19pm: Cover 1 lot at CMP of 94. Hold another lot for original target
Update at 3:13pm. Cover the other lot at CMP of 101
29 Aug 2012,10:18 am 29 Aug 2012, 3:13 pm NIFTY PE 5400.00 30AUG2012 1 * 50(50) 62 101 3100 1950 Support at 5350 reduced. Market likely to break 5300 levels before expiry
Update at 1:19pm: Cover 1 lot at CMP of 94. Hold another lot for original target
Update at 3:13pm. Cover the other lot at CMP of 101
30 Aug 2012,9:33 am 30 Aug 2012, 10:13 am NIFTY PE 5400.00 30AUG2012 4 * 50(200) 29 40 5800 2200 Market showing strong bearishness for the day. First leg can be traded for target of 42.40.
Update at 10:13am: cover all lots at CMP of 40
Update at 10:24am..buy back 4 lots at CMP of 34.
Update at 10:47am Buy 4 more lots (200) of 5300 PE at CMP of 24. SL 5..New target for 8 lots at 63
Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
30 Aug 2012,9:33 am 30 Aug 2012, 3:05 pm NIFTY PE 5400.00 30AUG2012 4 * 50(200) 34 5 6800 -5800 Market showing strong bearishness for the day. First leg can be traded for target of 42.40.
Update at 10:13am: cover all lots at CMP of 40
Update at 10:24am..buy back 4 lots at CMP of 34.
Update at 10:47am Buy 4 more lots (200) of 5300 PE at CMP of 24. SL 5..New target for 8 lots at 63
30 Aug 2012,9:33 am 30 Aug 2012, 3:05 pm NIFTY PE 5400.00 30AUG2012 4 * 50(200) 24 5 4800 -3800 Market showing strong bearishness for the day. First leg can be traded for target of 42.40.
Update at 10:13am: cover all lots at CMP of 40
Update at 10:24am..buy back 4 lots at CMP of 34.
Update at 10:47am Buy 4 more lots (200) of 5300 PE at CMP of 24. SL 5..New target for 8 lots at 63
30 Aug 2012,12:18 pm 30 Aug 2012, 3:30 pm RELIANCE PE 780.00 30AUG2012 1 * 500(500) 3.95 0 1975 -1975 Reliance looking bearish. Could be used to move NIFTY down towards the end of the day.
Closing Comment: The expected move did not happen. Stop Loss hit in position
Overall Profit/Loss Rs.3107.5

Entering the expiry day. What to expect today?

Wednesday, August 29th, 2012

For detailed view on derivative expiry for August series, please visit http://tripleint.com/nifty-29-aug-2012/.
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Entering the expiry day. What to expect today?

Wednesday, August 29th, 2012

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Nifty 28 Aug 2012

Tuesday, August 28th, 2012

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Nifty 27 Aug 2012

Monday, August 27th, 2012

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Nifty 24 Aug 2012

Friday, August 24th, 2012

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Nifty 23 Aug 2012

Thursday, August 23rd, 2012

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Nifty 22 Aug 2012

Wednesday, August 22nd, 2012

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Nifty 21 Aug 2012

Tuesday, August 21st, 2012

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Nifty 17 Aug 2012

Friday, August 17th, 2012

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