Archive for the ‘Nifty Expiry Prediction’ Category

An expiry close to 6000 levels for the September series…

Thursday, September 30th, 2010

Yesterday markets closed below 6000 levels for the first time in the expiry week.
Options data saw huge unwinding in 6100 puts as well as in 6000 puts with 6000 calls adding a huge open interest. The PCR at 1.19 though not heavily scewed indicates mild bullishness in the expiry day.
Overall in the last week, markets have been hovering around 6000 levels and for today it is expected to trade in a narrow range of 5975 to 6930 levels before settling for the day very close to 6000 levels for the September series.
Resistance levels : 6004, 6030

Support levels : 5981, 5975

-Happy Trading

An expiry close to 6000 levels for the September series…

Thursday, September 30th, 2010

Yesterday markets closed below 6000 levels for the first time in the expiry week.
Options data saw huge unwinding in 6100 puts as well as in 6000 puts with 6000 calls adding a huge open interest. The PCR at 1.19 though not heavily skewed indicates mild bullishness in the expiry day.
Overall in the last week, markets have been hovering around 6000 levels and for today it is expected to trade in a narrow range of 5975 to 6030 levels before settling for the day very close to 6000 levels for the September series.
Resistance levels : 6004, 6030

Support levels : 5981, 5975

-Happy Trading

A neutral day with wild swings to end the august series …

Thursday, August 26th, 2010

Yesterday bears could push markets further down towards the 20 DMA level 5457.
Options data saw turnaround yesterday with 5500 puts unwinding and 5500 calls adding 13 lakhs in open interest. The OI in 5400 puts remains at 1.2 crore.
The data points to the fact that Nifty might close between 5400 and 5500 for the august series and more so a neutral close around 5457 after testing 5430 levels and also 5500 levels on the higher side with intraday swings between these levels.
How to trade?
A long can be initiated on a test of 5430 levels and shorts on a move to test 5500 levels for an expiry close near to 5457 levels
Resistance levels : 5485, 5509

Support levels : 5448, 5432

-Happy Trading

An expiry close to 5400 levels for the July series…

Thursday, July 29th, 2010

Yesterday markets closed below 5400 levels for the first time in a week.
Option data saw some unwinding in 5400 puts and accumulation in 5400 calls and this points to some mild bearish move for the day to begin with. The OI has remained more than 1 crore in 5300 puts and 5500 calls and markets likely to stay in a tight range closer to 5400 levels.
Today being the derivative expiry day for the July series, market is likely to close the series closer to 5400 levels and is likely to swing between 5369 and 5445 levels for the day, more so getting support at 5387 levels and resistance at 5422 itself.
How to trade?
Longs can be initiated on a test of 5387 levels and lower for a target of 5402.
Resistance levels : 5402, 5422, 5445

Support levels : 5387, 5375, 5369

-Happy Trading

Last day of June series. Can bulls give the final push ?

Thursday, June 24th, 2010

Nifty hovered around 5300 levels yesterday with 5333 acting as the resistance level and closed the day on a neutral basis at 5323.
Options data saw unwinding towards the end of the session, both in 5300 calls and 5300 puts and both registering a huge turnover again for the third day of 10000 crores. Since unwinding was seen in 5200 calls as well as 5400 puts, the most likely expiry close for the june series is around 5302 levels and if bulls be able to give the final push in the later half of the session then Nifty might move on to 5354 levels.
How to trade?
A close watch on 5300 call and 5300 put open interest is required and if the accumulation is heavy in 5300 puts, then Nifty can go for a higher close of around 5354 levels. So any break below 5300 level is a buy point for the day. Depending on how it spans out, option trades will be posted separately. Watch out http://www.stockezy.com/opinions/tripleint/active-fno/
Resistance levels : 5333, 5354, 5365

Support levels : 5302, 5285, 5268

-Happy Trading

Bears to control the expiry towards the end …

Thursday, May 27th, 2010

The bounce that we saw yesterday, pushed Nifty even beyond the key resistance level of 4884 and also bulls were able to make a close above 4900 levels.
This has established a fight between bulls and bears for 4900 level for the expiry and majority of the data and pattern point to the fact that overall bears still have the upper hand for the expiry and might push Nifty to a close around 4806 levels.
Options data saw huge unwinding in 5000, 4900 calls and accumulation in 4900 puts, which gives bullish indication, along with the PCR of 1.10. But overall the undercurrent is very much bearish and for most of the session market is likely to trade in a narrow range between 4885 and 4925 before bears take control after noon and push it near 4800 levels for an expiry of around 4806 levels.
Resistance levels : 4925, 4935, 4951

Support levels : 4885, 4860, 4806

-Happy Trading

Bulls to charge back for the expiry…A close near 5300

Thursday, April 29th, 2010

In the penultimate session, bears completely dominated the markets and pushed it almost to a level below 5200 and closed very near to that.
As mentioned yesterday, any down move in that session will be equally nullified by bulls in the expiry session and it looks like bulls will charge back and push Nifty to a close of near 5300.
5200 puts reached more than 1 crore in open interest twice during the series and it looks like the strong hands which accumulated the puts the second time are out with heavy unwinding seen yesterday. 5300 puts also saw huge unwinding and the contrarian signal this is generating gives a view that Nifty can close almost near to 5300 levels for the April series.
Resistance levels : 5234, 5266, 5308

Support levels : 5202, 5185, 5165

-Happy Trading

Can bulls give the final push for the expiry ?!

Thursday, March 25th, 2010

Throughout this series, it has been bulls completely dominating the markets and being the expiry of March derivative series, pattern-wise bulls are placed on strong ground and are likely to push markets for a higher close.
On the contrary, in the past sessions, there were heavy unwinding seen in 5300 put, as well as 5200 puts indicating some amount of weakness. If the markets are to be pushed higher, there might not be any reason for 5200 puts to unwind. The overall volume PCR and PCR indicates a neutral to a bullish move. The transaction on 5200 calls and puts far exceeded the amount seen for previous expiries and points to a close around 5206 levels.
Pattern-wise, bulls can take market to a close of around 5256 levels.
Overall, it is better to wait for the intraday data on the open interests around mid-day to strategise and trade the expiry rather than positioning around the open itself.
Will be updating the trading calls around noon today.
Resistance levels : 5235, 5256, 5275

Support levels : 5218, 5206, 5177

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

Penultimate session saw neutral moves…Entering into expiry …

Thursday, February 25th, 2010

Nifty has been tightly hovering in a range taking strong support at the 20 DMA around 4838. Bears could not take advantage of the gap down move of yesterday and it again ended on a neutral note.
Looking at the options data, 4900 call and 4800 put recorded huge transaction on the 19th and since then the time premium has been eroding in both the options steadily as market has been hovering in the range. This points to the fact that both options could have been written on that day.
4900 call saw huge unwinding yesterday with the highest transaction for the month and 4900 put has seen accumulation and this is pointing to some amount of bullishness as we get into the expiry day.
Infosys has been the major heavy weight used to move Nifty intraday for this series and it is likely to be the key mover today also.
Resistance levels : 4885, 4905, 4930

Support levels : 4845, 4838, 4823

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

Bears to show their might for expiry also. A close around 4826 ?!

Thursday, January 28th, 2010

Bears have totally dominated this series in the last few sessions. In yesterday’s intraday pattern, there has also been a strong bull trap at 4903 level.
It is unlikely that Nifty moves above 4903 levels in today’s trade and even it it breaks that level, the strong ceiling is around 4932.
Markets will be controlled by bears towards the end of the day for this expiry and a close of 4826 is expected for the January series.

Resistance levels : 4856, 4903, 4932


Support levels : 4850, 4826, 4807

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com