Archive for the ‘Performance Update’ Category

Closed Position Details – August 2013

Tuesday, October 8th, 2013

Closed Position details

Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
13-Aug-2013, 9:36 am 13-Aug-2013, 11:40 am NIFTY CE 5700.00 29AUG2013 2 * 50(100) 55.50 77.40 5550 2190 Bullish bias seen with positive divergence in charts.Closing comment: Target reached
20-Aug-2013,11:50 am 21-Aug-2013,9:15 am NIFTY CE 5500.00 29AUG2013 2 * 50(100) 38.40 68 3840 2960 System indicating bullishness. Closing comment: Market opened gap up beyond the target of 63.4 and though high of 79 was reached at open, the position was closed at 68
26-Aug-2013, 9:23 am 26-Aug-2013, 3:13 pm NIFTY CE 5600.00 29AUG2013 2 * 50(100) 18.1 7.2 1810 -1090 Nifty likely to move towards 5557 levels and reach 5600 by tomorrow. Closing comment: Upmove towards the end could not take it to 5557 levels. Though an update was sent to close the position at 9.6, SL price of 7.2 is considered as closing price
29-Aug-2013, 9:44 am 29-Aug-2013, 12:15 pm NIFTY CE 5300.00 29AUG2013 1 * 50(50) 38 67.85 1900 1492.5 Nifty likely to move towards 5380 levels by afternoon. Closing comment: The position is closed for 67.85
Overall Profit/Loss Rs.5552.5

Closed Position Details – September 2013

Tuesday, October 8th, 2013

Closed Position details

Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
03-Sep-2013, 9:31 am 05-Sep-2013, 9:25 am NIFTY CE 5800.00 26SEP2013 1 * 50(50) 35.05 56.80 1752.5 1087.5 Nifty likely to reach 5620 levels. System supporting buy on dips. Closing comment: NIFTY reached our target levels of 5620 with strong gap up opening. Position is closed
04-Sep-2013, 3:12 pm 05-Sep-2013, 9:25 am NIFTY CE 5800.00 26SEP2013 1 * 50(50) 27.80 56.8 1390 1450 System pointing to bullishness. Expecting a strong upmove tomorrow. Closing coment: Expected move came with strong gap opening. Position closed
10-Sep-2013, 9:51 am 10-Sep-2013, 3:03 pm NIFTY PE 5400.00 26SEP2013 2 * 50(100) 37.30 26.5 3730 -1080 Nifty reached 5808 levels and expecting a correction from this level. Closing comments: System OI trend has stopped supporting down move.
17-Sep-2013,10:06 am 17-Sep-2013,1:45 pm NIFTY CE 6000.00 26SEP2013 1 * 50(50) 45.30 46.70 2265 70 Nifty likely to hover in a range. Expecting it to reach higher levels before correcting again by afternoon. Closing comment: Higher level reached but failed to hit our target of 59.40. Position is closed at 46.70, almost a scratch trade. Options not appreciating due to tight range bound market
18-Sep-2013, 3:14 pm 19-Sep-2013, 9:15 am NIFTY PE 5800.00 26SEP2013 1 * 50(50) 64.10 14 3205 -2505 Nifty likely to come down below 200 DMA levels.Closing comment: Nifty opened beyond our stop loss price and position is closed at 14 levels
24-sep-2013, 2:40 pm 25-sep-2013, 10:15 am NIFTY CE 5900.00 26sep2013 1 * 50(50) 58.90 39.20 2945 -985 Nifty likely to move up towards 6000 levels tomorrow. Closing comment: System OI trend not supporting. Position is closed.
Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
25-Sep-2013,10:44 am 25-Sep-2013,12:46 pm NIFTY PE 5900.00 26SEP2013 1 * 50(50) 46.1 86.40 2305 2015 System pointing to strong bearishness. Nifty likely to move towards 5808 levels.
Overall Profit/Loss Rs.52.5

January – A month of choppy trades with negative returns

Monday, February 4th, 2013

End of January Series and beginning of February Series – What to Expect?

There were 6 trades for the month. Out of the 6 trades, 1 was profitable and 5 ended up in loss. With a starting capital of Rs.30,000, the final loss for the month stand at Rs.2,680. The overall profit for the last six months stand at Rs. 15,978.75, a 53.3% gain.

What went right for the month?

The profitable trade that we took during the expiry week, wiped out most of the loss for the month. It was a low risk and a high reward trade which paid off.

What went wrong for the month?

Throughout the month, system was not giving a clear signal and was swinging either side. We couldn’t get our trades right in the starting of the month. There were a few opportunities to take profits out of trades, but we let it run into loss. Overall, the expiry trade also backfired. Though it came back in range, it took our stop loss before that.

Learnings and how do we move forward

1. We were able to get a less risk, high reward trade during the expiry week and more such trades need to be in place going forward.
2. Stock option trades erode in value rapidly and though at times we were profitable in RCOM, we didn’t cash in on that. Also the stock made a move against us immediately after we took the trade and after that we missed coming out profitable and re-entry on multiple instances.

How does it look like for the February series

January series closed comfortably above the psychological mark of 6000 levels and February series has broken that. Going forward the negative divergence in weekly and daily charts indicate a bearish move, but there might be an upmove early in the month to trap more bulls. We will wait for confirmation from TripleInt’s option trading system for initiating new trades.

Nifty January Expiry Charts

The expiry chart is given below

For other option price move charts on the expiry day, please follow the link
http://tripleint.com/nifty-31-jan-2013-expiry-chart/

Performance for the month of January

Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
31-Dec-2012, 9:55 am 01-Jan-2013, 9:05 am NIFTY PE 5800.00 31JAN2013 4 * 50(200) 40.75 29 8150 -2350 Negative divergence in weekly and daily charts. Likely to come down and test lower levels of 5832. Closing comment: Stop loss triggered. Was able to close only at 29
10-Jan-2013, 9:45 am 10-Jan-2013, 11:40 am NIFTY CE 6100.00 31JAN2013 3 * 50(150) 37 33.80 5550 -480 System pointing to an upmove for the day. OI indicating bullishness after the gap up today. Closing comment: System oscillating between puts and calls and the OI trend is also changing. It is better to stay out for a while until we get further confirmation on a breakout either side
11-Jan-2013,12:22 pm 14-Jan-2013,3:05 pm NIFTY PE 5900.00 31JAN2013 3 * 50(150) 30.3 19 4545 -1695 System indicating a down move along with pattern of divergence. Closing Comment: Stop loss triggered in position.
11-Jan-2013, 1:03 pm 22-Jan-2013, 1:05 pm RCOM PE 75.00 31JAN2013 1 * 4000(4000) 0.7 0.1 2800 -2400 RCOM looking weak with strong negative divergence. Closing comment: Strong down move happened on 24th Jan but position is stopped out before itself.
29-Jan-2013,11:34 am 29-Jan-2013,1:45 pm NIFTY PE 6100.00 31JAN2013 4 * 50(200) 25 55 5000 6000 Nifty likely to go down from 6114 levels till 6036 levels before tomorrow. Closing comment: 6050 acting as some support. The position is closed for profit
31-Jan-2013, 1:16 pm 31-Jan-2013, 2:45 pm NIFTY CE 6000.00 31JAN2013 3 * 50(150) 40.70 29 6105 -1755 Nifty likely to move back in range for the day. Closing comment: Stop loss triggered in position.
Overall Profit/Loss Rs.-2680

TripleInt’s Option trading System at end of January Series

======== Underlying Index: NIFTY 6034.75  As on Feb 01 2013 09:00:02 IST =========

Set-1 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 6034 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 6034 5600 6500 CALL CALL -20.79 -584,700 CALL -97.57
## 6034 5700 6400 CALL CALL -18.22 -534,200 CALL -92.13
## 6034 5800 6300 CALL CALL -6.78 -731,300 CALL -26.56
## 6034 5900 6200 CALL PUT -4.63 1,265,550 -17.84
## ## 6000 6100 CALL CALL -3.69 -710,800 CALL -14.26
Set-2 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 6034 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 6034 5600 6400 CALL PUT -19.15 1,068,250 -93.45
## 6034 5700 6300 CALL CALL -17.52 -517,900 CALL -89.59
## 6034 5800 6200 CALL PUT -6.68 350,050 -26.22
## 6034 5900 6100 CALL CALL -4.66 -708,600 CALL -17.95
## ## 6000 6000 CALL CALL -4.00 -3,809,800 CALL -15.34
Set-3 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 6034 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 6034 5700 6500 CALL CALL -19.86 -2,187,150 CALL -96.71
## 6034 5800 6400 CALL CALL -7.48 -747,600 CALL -28.87
## 6034 5900 6300 CALL PUT -4.73 184,200 -18.19
## 6034 6000 6200 CALL PUT -3.66 1,263,350 -14.15
## ## 6100 6100 CALL PUT -3.38 2,388,200 -13.16
Set-4 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 6034 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 6034 5700 6600 CALL CALL -20.12 -2,465,700 CALL -96.39
## 6034 5800 6500 CALL CALL -9.12 -2,400,550 CALL -33.50
## 6034 5900 6400 CALL PUT -5.43 167,900 -20.57
## 6034 6000 6300 CALL PUT -3.76 182,000 -14.51
## ## 6100 6200 CALL PUT -3.35 4,362,350 -13.05

Happy Trading
—www.tripleint.com

December – Mixed trades of Profit and Loss in a range bound month

Friday, January 4th, 2013

End of December Series and beginning of January Series – What to Expect?

There were 7 trades for the month. Out of the 7 trades, 3 were profitable and 4 ended up in loss. With a starting capital of Rs.30,000, the final loss for the month stand at Rs.778.75. For the 5 month period that began in Aug-2012, we are sitting with a profit of Rs.18,658.75 on an investment of Rs. 30,000, a return of 62.2%.

What went right for the month?

The initial option trade of SBIN proved to be profitable and we began the month on a good note.

What went wrong for the month?

Overall it was a range bound month and so we were unable to make most out of our trades by setting aggressive targets.

Learnings and how do we move forward

1. The month was range bound and our targets were set quite high. A few of the profitable opportunities were missed out when markets turned direction.

How does it look like for the January series

As we enter January, markets have started on a strong bullish note, but there are negative divergences seen in both weekly and daily charts which point to the fact that markets are moving up irrationally.

Nifty December Expiry Charts

The expiry chart is given below

Performance for the month of December

Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
29-Nov-2012,12:27 pm 30-Nov-2012,10:09 am SBIN CE 2200.00 27DEC2012 2 * 50(100) 43 62.45 4300 1945 SBIN looking strong with positive divergence. Call trade executed for next month series. Closing Comment: Target reached
05-Dec-2012,10:52 am 06-Dec-2012,3:05 pm NIFTY PE 5800.00 27DEC2012 3 * 50(150) 37.45 26 5617.5 -1717.5 System pointing towards bearishness after nearing the initial up move of 5925.Closing comment: After making a high of 55 for 5800 PE, market gave a bounce before reaching our target of 59 and the stop loss of 26 got triggered.
10-Dec-2012, 9:55 am 11-Dec-2012, 9:25 am NIFTY PE 5800.00 27DEC2012 4 * 50(200) 26.10 16.95 5220 -1830 System pointing towards bearishness. A good reward:risk trade: Closing comment: SL triggered. Was not able to close at the specified stop loss of 18.8 and the position is closed lower at the rate of 16.95.
07-Dec-2012,10:12 am 18-Dec-2012, 12:27 pm IDBI PE 105.00 27DEC2012 1 * 2000(2000) 1.4 0.85 2800 -1100 Bearish divergence seen. Closing Comment: closed at 0.85. Nifty seen in a tight volatile range.
11-Dec-2012, 2:44 pm 18-Dec-2012, 12:27 pm NIFTY PE 5900.00 27DEC2012 1 * 50(50) 56 52 2800 -200 Final bull trap made at 5965 levels. System indicating further bearishness. Closing comment: The put appreciated only till 81 levels. Intraday volatility has increased and NIFTY moving back in range. Position closed for 52.
Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
14-Dec-2012, 1:08 pm 18-Dec-2012, 12:27 pm INFY PE 2250.00 27DEC2012 1 * 125(125) 19.10 22.85 2387.5 468.75 Pattern indicating a bearish move. Closing comment: Market moving in volatile range. Position closed at Rs.22.85
21-Dec-2012,10:13 am 21-Dec-2012,3:02 pm NIFTY PE 5900.00 27DEC2012 2 * 50(100) 50 66.55 5000 1655 Nifty looking bearish. Expecting a down trend day to reach our original target. Closing Comment: Position closed at 66.55 intraday. Will initiate new trade on Monday based on system and conditions
Overall Profit/Loss Rs.-778.75

Happy Trading
—www.tripleint.com

November – A month of profitable returns from fewer number of trades

Monday, December 3rd, 2012

End of November Series and beginning of December Series – What to Expect?

There were 5 trades for the month. Out of the 5 trades, 3 were profitable and 2 ended up in loss. With a starting capital of Rs.30000, the final profits for the month stand at Rs.4060, a 13.5% return.

What went right for the month?

It was a range bound month with swings on both sides. The expiry prediction of NIFTY reaching 5832 levels came spot on resulting in profitable trade for the month.

What went wrong for the month?

The initial trade went wrong and so had to take a pause to study further moves carefully along with system input and taking risk aspects into account. The expectation of market reaching 5585 levels was met, but our trade against that view in the initial part of the month backfired.

Learnings and how do we move forward

1. More time was taken to study the market as it was swinging from one side to the other without giving a strong directional trend.
2. We restricted to lesser number of trades for the entire month thus taking care of risk aspect.
3. Expiry trade was made with a very good reward to risk ratio and that paid off well.
4. The SBIN trade initiated on the expiry day for the next month series proved to be successful with the target being reached on the very first day of the December series.

How does it look like for the December series

The November series closed on a year high value. As we enter the December series, there is some amount of bullishness as pointed by TripleInt’s option trading system and markets can test 5925 levels.

Nifty November Expiry Charts

The expiry chart is given below

For other option price move charts on the expiry day, please follow the link
http://tripleint.com/nifty-29-nov-12-expiry-chart/

Performance for the month of November

Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
26-Oct-2012,10:20 am 30-Oct-2012,11:45 am NIFTY CE 5800.00 29NOV2012 2 * 50(100) 54.70 31.40 5470 -2330 System giving a bullish indication. Likely to test 5742 levels in the beginning of the series. Closing comment: Stop loss triggered in position and it is closed
06-Nov-2012,10:58 am 16-Nov-2012, 3:13 pm NIFTY PE 5600.00 29NOV2012 2 * 50(100) 29 62.40 2900 3340 System turning bearish. Expecting a down move. Closing comment: Target reached
09-Nov-2012, 1:05 pm 27-Nov-2012, 1:28 pm HCLTECH PE 600.00 29NOV2012 1 * 500(500) 4.55 0.05 2275 -2250 Looking bearish with strong negative divergence. Closing comment: Stop loss triggered
29-Nov-2012,12:04 pm 29-Nov-2012,3:05 pm NIFTY CE 5800.00 29NOV2012 5 * 50(250) 9.8 29.4 2450 4900 Expiry trade. Looks like market is likely to breakout of 5800 and reach 5832 levels. NOTE: Complete risk in position as we will let it expire otherwise. Closing Comment: Target reached
29-Nov-2012, 2:06 pm 29-Nov-2012, 3:05 pm RELIANCE CE 800.00 29NOV2012 2 * 500(1000) 2 2.4 2000 400 Reliance likely to move NIFTY higher for expiry. Closing comment: Position closed at 2.4 as NIFTY target is reached
Overall Profit/Loss Rs.4060

TripleInt’s Option trading System at end of November Series

The system input at the end of the november series and after the first day of trading in the december series is as given below.

======== Underlying Index: NIFTY 5879.85  As on Nov 30 2012 15:30:31 IST =========

Set-1 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5879 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5879 5400 6300 CALL CALL -24.39 -2,699,750 CALL -103.98
## 5879 5500 6200 CALL CALL -20.56 -2,284,750 CALL -96.67
## 5879 5600 6100 CALL CALL -18.29 -1,760,750 CALL -92.04
## 5879 5700 6000 CALL PUT -9.00 1,666,900 -36.85
## ## 5800 5900 CALL CALL -6.01 -48,000 CALL -23.58
Set-2 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5879 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5879 5400 6200 CALL CALL -22.43 -2,631,700 CALL -99.15
## 5879 5500 6100 CALL CALL -19.61 -1,197,300 CALL -94.01
## 5879 5600 6000 CALL PUT -18.09 527,650 -91.65
## 5879 5700 5900 CALL CALL -9.42 -1,686,500 CALL -38.64
## ## 5800 5800 CALL CALL -6.98 -2,818,000 CALL -27.60
Set-3 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5879 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5879 5500 6300 CALL CALL -22.52 -2,352,800 CALL -102.35
## 5879 5600 6200 CALL CALL -19.24 -2,848,200 CALL -95.06
## 5879 5700 6100 CALL CALL -9.20 -621,500 CALL -37.36
## 5879 5800 6000 CALL PUT -5.59 3,305,400 -21.89
## ## 5900 5900 CALL PUT -5.04 2,722,000 -19.63
Set-4 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5879 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5879 5500 6400 CALL CALL -24.80 -3,309,200 CALL -108.29
## 5879 5600 6300 CALL CALL -21.20 -2,916,250 CALL -101.40
## 5879 5700 6200 CALL CALL -10.15 -1,708,950 CALL -40.28
## 5879 5800 6100 CALL PUT -5.79 1,017,000 -22.48
## ## 5900 6000 CALL PUT -4.62 6,075,400 -17.96

Happy Trading
—www.tripleint.com

A tight range bound month with normal performance

Friday, October 26th, 2012

End of October Series and beginning of November Series – What to Expect?

There were 10 trades for the month. Out of the 10 trades, 4 were profitable and 5 ended up in loss with one trade ending in no gain no loss. With a starting capital of Rs.30000, the final profits for the month stand at Rs.3392.50

What went right for the month?

The month was confined to a very tight range for most of the latter part of the series and tight range bound months are favourable for option sellers rather than buyers. Inspite of that we ended the month with a profit of Rs.3392.50, a 11.3% on the initial capital of Rs.30000.

What went wrong for the month?

Again this month, the expiry trade was not successful, even though the loss was limited well ahead taking cues from the changing system. A near to 5700 close was not favourable for both calls and puts and though the system was indicating a highly volatile move either side, we could not cash in on the expiry trade.

Learnings and how do we move forward

1. We learnt from the last time experience to carefully limit the risk of trades on the expiry day and that paid off well towards the end. We were able to protect the profits as well as the capital on the expiry day by risking only a small portion of the already booked profits. This month also we benefited from this principle.
2. UNITECH option backfired with a very strong move on the upper side. We limited the loss with a good risk control mechanism and the benefit of our strategy of buying options was directly experienced, (rather than selling or trading in futures).
3. In a more so range bound month as indicated by the system, we set quite a few aggressive targets. A smaller profits would have benefited us in this tight range bound month on some of the positions.

How does it look like for the November series

As we enter the November series, there is some amount of bullishness as pointed by TripleInt’s option trading system. Markets are consolidating above 5634 levels which is also pointing to some bullishness to begin with. But a retracement till 5585 levels is expected any time soon after any bullish move as indicated by negative divergence in charts. We will initiate trades accordingly.

Nifty October Expiry Charts

The expiry chart is given below

For other option price move charts on the expiry day, please follow the link
http://tripleint.blogspot.in/2012/10/nifty-25-oct-2012-expiry-chart.html

Performance for the month of October

Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
03-Oct-2012, 9:32 am 04-Oct-2012, 9:41 am NIFTY PE 5700.00 25OCT2012 2 * 50(100) 62 41 6200 -2100 Expecting the high to be around 5748 and NIFTY to move towards 5634 levels from there. Resistance at 5750 levels strong as indicated by the system. Update at 9:41 am 4 OCT: Stoploss got triggered. Position closed as of now
05-Oct-2012, 9:29 am 05-Oct-2012, 11:40 am NIFTY PE 5700.00 25OCT2012 3 * 50(150) 41 67 6150 3900 Nifty showing negative divergence and OI trend supporting a down move. Update at 11:40am 5 OCT: Position closed at CMP of 67
09-Oct-2012,10:40 am 10-Oct-2012,9:20 am NIFTY PE 5700.00 25OCT2012 2 * 50(100) 58 76 5800 1800 System indicating a down move. Charts showing divergence. Likely to test 5634 levels. Update at 9:24, 10 OCT: The position is closed as of now for 76
05-Oct-2012, 9:49 am 10-Oct-2012, 3:15 pm SBIN PE 2200.00 25OCT2012 1 * 125(125) 22.50 41.80 2812.5 2412.5 SBIN looking bearish with the possibility of a strong down move.Closing comment: SBIN put was trading at 41.80 at 3:15pm when the position was closed. It hit the target of 45 (day high) after that. The trade is closed at 41.80
05-Oct-2012, 1:27 pm 15-Oct-2012,1:15 pm UNITECH PE 22.50 25OCT2012 1 * 8000(8000) 0.45 0.10 3600 -2800 Pattern looking bearish with negative divergence. Likely to move below 200 DMA towards 20 levels. Closing comment: Though it moved and closed below 200 DMA, there was a major up move following that. Stop loss triggered in position.
Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
09-Oct-2012,10:46 am 15-Oct-2012,1:15 pm RELCAPITAL PE 420.00 25OCT2012 1 * 500(500) 9.20 4.40 4600 -2400 Bearish undercurrent seen in stock. Closing comment: Stop loss triggered in position
12-Oct-2012, 9:59 am 17-Oct-2012, 9:26 am NIFTY PE 5700.00 25OCT2012 2 * 50(100) 60 60 6000 0 OI trend suggesting bearishness in NIFTY for the day. Likely to move closer to 5600 levels. Closing Comment: System indicating support build up in OI at 5650 levels. The NIFTY position is closed at the CMP of 60. (A scratch trade with no gain and no loss).
17-Oct-2012,11:55 am 18-Oct-2012, 2:15 pm NIFTY CE 5700.00 25OCT2012 3 * 50(150) 31 62 4650 4650 Range bound market indication. Likely to reach 5750 levels in two days time. Closing Comment: Target hit and position closed
19-Oct-2012,11:44 am 19-Oct-2012,12:20 pm NIFTY CE 5700.00 25OCT2012 3 * 50(150) 44 35 6600 -1350 Likely to move up today pointed by the OI in system. 5744 expected levels. Closing Comment: OI change is more dynamic. Stop loss triggered in position
25-Oct-2012,11:00 am 25-Oct-2012, 2.30 pm NIFTY PE 5700.00 25OCT2012 4 * 50(200) 12.30 8.7 2460 -720 Might turn bearish towards afternoon.
Overall Profit/Loss Rs.3392.5

System data at the beginning of November Series

======== Underlying Index: NIFTY 5705.30  As on Oct 25 2012 15:30:26 IST =========

Set-1 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5705 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5705 5200 6100 CALL PUT -20.04 1,090,600 -93.53
## 5705 5300 6000 CALL CALL -18.36 -734,150 CALL -89.89
## 5705 5400 5900 CALL PUT -16.96 1,891,900 -86.28
## 5705 5500 5800 CALL CALL -4.41 -1,031,500 CALL -16.56
## ## 5600 5700 CALL CALL -3.52 -2,978,500 CALL -13.14
Set-2 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5705 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5705 5200 6000 CALL PUT -19.54 1,586,550 -91.81
## 5705 5300 5900 CALL CALL -17.88 -485,650 CALL -87.83
## 5705 5400 5800 CALL PUT -17.00 418,900 -86.18
## 5705 5500 5700 CALL CALL -4.63 -2,398,150 CALL -17.27
## ## 5600 5600 CALL CALL -4.14 -5,152,200 CALL -15.40
Set-3 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5705 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5705 5300 6100 CALL CALL -18.86 -1,230,100 CALL -91.75
## 5705 5400 6000 CALL PUT -17.44 1,643,400 -88.44
## 5705 5500 5900 CALL PUT -4.37 441,500 -16.49
## 5705 5600 5800 CALL CALL -3.30 -1,611,850 CALL -12.40
## ## 5700 5700 CALL CALL -2.90 -804,800 CALL -10.87
Set-4 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5705 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5705 5300 6200 CALL CALL -21.27 -1,707,750 CALL -100.02
## 5705 5400 6100 CALL PUT -17.94 1,147,450 -90.41
## 5705 5500 6000 CALL PUT -4.85 193,000 -18.22
## 5705 5600 5900 CALL CALL -3.26 -138,850 CALL -12.31
## ## 5700 5800 CALL PUT -2.68 561,850 -10.11

Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

A robust performance in the month of September 2012.

Friday, September 28th, 2012

End of September Series and beginning of October Series – What to Expect?

There were very few trades for the month as I took a long break inbetween. Out of the 7 trades, 4 were profitable and 3 ended up in loss. With a starting capital of Rs.30000, the final profits for the month stand at Rs.8877.50

What went right for the month?

The picks initially gave good returns in expected lines and towards the end losses were controlled well and the positions were closed when it was turning against us indicated by the system. This resulted in a healthy return of Rs.8877.5 out of the initial investment of Rs.30000. There were quite a few trades only during the month and we were able to acheive a far greater return than last month and this is also an example of more need not necessarily be good as far as number of trades are concerned.

What went wrong for the month?

1. The expiry trades were not succesful, eventhough the losses were limited well ahead taking cues from the changing system.

2. The EDUCOMP trade was giving a return of around 200%, we failed to cash in the day before and let it expire worthless.

Learnings and how do we move forward

1. We learnt from the last time experience to carefully limit the risk of trades on the expiry day and that paid off well towards the end. We were able to protect the profits as well as the capital on the expiry day by risking only a small portion of the already booked profits.
2. CANBK option proved to be a huge success. Though the 320 option was exit much earlier at Rs. 18.1, it went on to cross more than Rs. 100. A greater return expectation can be set in options during the start of the month and towards the end, the return expectation need to be curtailed as we saw with EDUCOMP.
3. There were quite a few technical glitches faces here and now with the Live system, Position details and they have been rectified. As we progress, the goal is to eliminate all such glitches.

How does it look like for the October series

As we enter the October series, there is still some amount of bullishness left to begin with as pointed by TripleInt’s option trading system.

Nifty September Expiry Charts

The expiry charts can be found at the following link
http://tripleint.com/nifty-27-sep-2012-expiry-chart/

Performance for the month of September

Date Open Date

Closed

Scrip Option

Type

Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot

size

Entry Price Exit Price Total

Investment

Profit/Loss Comment
04 Sep 2012,10:14 am 05 Sep 2012, 3:25 pm NIFTY PE 5200.00 27SEP2012 3 * 50(150) 56 60.35 8400 652.5 Nifty likely to test 5190 levels. Strength in support at 5300 decreasing
Update at 3:25: Cover 3 lots at

CMP of 60.35

07-Sep-2012,10:07 am 10-Sep-2012,9:29 am NIFTY CE 5400.00 27SEP2012 4 * 50(200) 42.50 50.25 8500 1550 System indicated upmove for the month started. With a closer stop a good reward:risk trade
Update at 9:29

am- Cover all 4 lots at CMP of 50.25. OI Resitance at 5350 increasing

11 Sep 2012,10:01 am 11 Sep 2012, 3:00 pm NIFTY CE 5400.00 27SEP2012 5 * 50(250) 42 62.3 10500 5075 Bullish move expected in NIFTY. System indicating an up trend
Closing Comment: Target hit.
07-Sep-2012,12:07 pm 14-Sep-2012,10.00 am CANBK CE 320.00 27SEP2012 1 * 500(500) 10 18.1 5000 4050 Strong bullish pattern emerging with divergence. Likely to reach 342.50 in spot for the series
Update on

12th Sep: Target revised to 18.1

27-Sep-2012,10:42 am 27-Sep-2012,11:20 am NIFTY PE 5700.00 27SEP2012 2 * 50(100) 27 21.3 2700 -570 Likely to test 5634 levels before expiry.
Update at 11:14am: Since the OI data is changing the position can

be closed at CMP of 21.30

Date Open Date

Closed

Scrip Option

Type

Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot

size

Entry Price Exit Price Total

Investment

Profit/Loss Comment
27-Sep-2012,11:45 am 27-Sep-2012,12:18 pm NIFTY CE 5700.00 27SEP2012 4 * 50(200) 15.4 11 3080 -880 OI data changing to indicate a rally. Buying calls. Update at 12:19. Can cover the position at CMP of 11. As of

now no indication of market going strong in any direction. Better to stay out.

25-Sep-2012, 3:16 pm 27-Sep-2012, 3:30 pm EDUCOMP CE 170.00 27SEP2012 1 * 2000(2000) 0.50 0 1000 -1000 Looking bullish. Might start the upmove again tomorrow and close higher for expiry day after
Overall Profit/Loss Rs.8877.5

System data at the beginning of October Series

========

Underlying Index: NIFTY 5649.50  As

on Sep 27 2012 15:30:21 IST =========

Set-1 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5649 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5649 5100 6000 CALL PUT -20.73 2,081,000 -82.46
## 5649 5200 5900 CALL CALL -7.95 -469,650 CALL -25.11
## 5649 5300 5800 CALL CALL -2.45 -365,900 CALL -7.47
## 5649 5400 5700 CALL CALL -2.33 -725,200 CALL -7.29
## ## 5500 5600 CALL CALL -1.61 -3,275,800 CALL -5.03
Set-2 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5649 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5649 5100 5900 CALL PUT -21.76 1,363,800 -85.42
## 5649 5200 5800 CALL PUT -7.83 780,600 -24.72
## 5649 5300 5700 CALL CALL -2.44 -2,150,100 CALL -7.44
## 5649 5400 5600 CALL CALL -2.72 -3,746,700 CALL -8.46
## ## 5500 5500 CALL CALL -2.16 -4,300,700 CALL -6.68
Set-3 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5649 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5649 5200 6000 CALL PUT -6.92 247,550 -22.22
## 5649 5300 5900 CALL CALL -2.57 -1,616,150 CALL -7.84
## 5649 5400 5800 CALL PUT -2.34 1,059,000 -7.33
## 5649 5500 5700 CALL CALL -1.22 -254,300 CALL -3.84
## ## 5600 5600 CALL CALL -1.06 -2,250,900 CALL -3.34
Set-4 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5649 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5649 5200 6100 CALL CALL -8.67 -1,747,150 CALL -26.79
## 5649 5300 6000 CALL CALL -1.54 -898,950 CALL -4.78
## 5649 5400 5900 CALL CALL -2.46 -191,250 CALL -7.71
## 5649 5500 5800 CALL PUT -1.23 1,529,900 -3.87
## ## 5600 5700 CALL PUT -0.67 770,600 -2.13

Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

End of August series and beginning of September – What to expect?

Thursday, August 30th, 2012

-

Happy Trading www.tripleint.com

It was a roller-coaster ride for our returns in the month of August. With a starting capital of Rs.30000, the final profits for the month stand at Rs.3107.50.

What went right for the month?

The beginning of the month started on a very positive note with TripleInt’s system giving a strong buy signal and was able to peak around Rs.18000 in profits with closer risk and money management according to the trading plan.

What went wrong for the month?

From a peak profits of Rs.18000 we ended the month with a profit of Rs.3107.50. There was a strong drawdown and the following are the reasons.
1. The expiry view and trades went wrong costing us around Rs.8000 of the profits
2. Some of the stock options, though were in profit zone initially became illiquid at a later stage.
3. The targets for the stock options were set very aggressively.
4. More focus was given to the returns rather than the percentage of success for the trades. This was resulting in a bigger drawdown when the positions turned against us.

Learnings and how do we move forward

1. The risk amount for the expiry was large, though we were having profits of more than Rs.12000 one day before the expiry.
2. Options are to be chosen as even more liquid ones. Though at the time of buying they were liquid, when the position moved against or stayed at the same price, they became illiquid.

How does it look like for the September series

As we enter the September series, there is some amount of bullishness to begin with and it is likely that markets will move up in this series. TripleInt’s option trading system is giving the following data.
We will look for the right opportunity to initiate long trades to begin with.

======== Underlying Index: NIFTY 5315.05  As on Aug 30 2012 15:30:51 IST =========

Set-1 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5315 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5315 4800 5700 CALL CALL -21.57 -1,069,100 CALL -50.00
## 5315 4900 5600 CALL PUT -8.71 1,952,300 -13.14
## 5315 5000 5500 CALL PUT -27.12 140,050 -110.63
## 5315 5100 5400 CALL CALL -26.04 -822,300 CALL -109.30
## ## 5200 5300 CALL CALL -18.19 -5,374,850 CALL -64.07
Set-2 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5315 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5315 4800 5600 CALL PUT -30.28 2,164,500 -115.86
## 5315 4900 5500 CALL PUT -7.04 1,308,100 -11.19
## 5315 5000 5400 CALL CALL -26.73 -820,850 CALL -109.83
## 5315 5100 5300 CALL CALL -26.58 -3,872,200 CALL -112.80
## ## 5200 5200 CALL CALL -22.00 -7,906,900 CALL -81.72
Set-3 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5315 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5315 4900 5700 PUT CALL 0.00 -1,281,300 0.00
## 5315 5000 5600 CALL PUT -28.79 784,250 -115.11
## 5315 5100 5500 CALL PUT -26.43 138,600 -110.16
## 5315 5200 5400 CALL CALL -17.65 -2,324,950 CALL -61.35
## ## 5300 5300 CALL CALL -14.38 -2,842,800 CALL -47.89
Set-4 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5315 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5315 4900 5800 PUT CALL 0.00 -1,281,300 0.00
## 5315 5000 5700 CALL CALL -20.08 -2,449,350 CALL -50.00
## 5315 5100 5600 CALL PUT -28.10 782,800 -114.84
## 5315 5200 5500 CALL CALL -18.04 -1,364,050 CALL -62.18
## ## 5300 5400 CALL PUT -13.84 207,100 -45.45

Performance – Position details

Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
27 Jul 2012, 1:45 pm 30 Jul 2012, 9:30 am NIFTY CE 5200.00 30AUG2012 5 * 50(250) 62.90 75.10 15725 3050 Bullish move expected in NIFTY with gapup on Monday
06 Aug 2012, 9.22 am 08 Aug 2012, 10.14 am BHARTIARTL PE 280.00 30AUG2012 2 * 1000(2000) 2.8 7.1 5600 8600 Strong bearish pattern seen. A handsome profit on the position though an early exit
13 Aug 2012, 1:23 pm 13 Aug 2012, 2:40 pm NIFTY CE 5400.00 30AUG2012 7 * 50(350) 34.5 44 12075 3325 Nifty looking bullish from this point.Likely to move higher.Target hit
8 Aug 2012, 10:45 am 14 Aug 2012, 2:00 pm NTPC CE 170.00 30AUG2012 1 * 2000(2000) 3.2 5 6400 3600 Closing Comment: Though update sent for a close of 5.35, was able to close only at 5. Updated that as exit price
8 Aug 2012, 11:05 am 17 Aug 2012, 2:40 pm GAIL CE 380.00 30AUG2012 1 * 1000(1000) 3.45 1.2 3450 -2250 The Spot is expected to reach 390 levels before the close of this series. Closing comment: Stop loss hit on position.
Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
14 Aug 2012, 11:35 am 21 Aug 2012, 9:40 am ITC CE 270.00 30AUG2012 1 * 1000(1000) 3 6 3000 -2200 Strong bullish pattern seen. Target of 275 for this series.
CLOSING COMMENT: Stop Loss hit
16 Aug 2012, 10:38 am 21 Aug 2012, 9:40 am ITC CE 270.00 30AUG2012 4 * 1000(4000) 1.6 6 6400 -3200 Strong bullish pattern seen. Target of 275 for this series.
CLOSING COMMENT: Stop Loss hit
21 Aug 2012, 9:30 am 21 Aug 2012, 3:00 pm NIFTY CE 5400.00 30AUG2012 3 * 50(150) 47 62.40 7050 2310 System giving support at 5363 levels. Can go long with a closer stop loss.
TARGET CHANGE COMMENT: Cover 3 lots of NIFTY at 62.40 and remaining 3 lots of NIFTY at 75.40 instead of the original target of 78.
Update at 3pm: First target of 62.40 hit. Covered 3 lots.
Remaining 3 lots closed at 3:20 pm price 66.05
Overall Profit on position Rs.5167.50
21 Aug 2012, 9:30 am 21 Aug 2012, 3:20 pm NIFTY CE 5400.00 30AUG2012 3 * 50(150) 47 66.05 7050 2857.5 System giving support at 5363 levels. Can go long with a closer stop loss.
TARGET CHANGE COMMENT: Cover 3 lots of NIFTY at 62.40 and remaining 3 lots of NIFTY at 75.40 instead of the original target of 78.
Update at 3pm: First target of 62.40 hit. Covered 3 lots.
Remaining 3 lots closed at 3:20 pm price 66.05
Overall Profit on position Rs.5167.50
23 Aug 2012,11:30 am 23 Aug 2012, 12:50 pm NIFTY CE 5400.00 30AUG2012 6 * 50(300) 37 32.8 11100 -1260 NIFTY showing strength, With a closer stop a good reward:risk trade
Closing Comment Update at 12:50 System indicating a reversal in trend. Cover all lots (STOP LOSS) at CMP of 32.8
Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
13 Aug 2012, 10:05 am 24 Aug 2012, 3:00 pm GAIL CE 380.00 30AUG2012 1 * 1000(1000) 3.6 0.70 3600 -2900 The Spot is expected to reach 390 levels before the close of this series
Closing Comment: Stop Loss hit on position.
28-Aug-2012,11:35 am 28 Aug 2012, 1:05 pm NIFTY CE 5300.00 30AUG2012 4 * 50(200) 62 47 12400 -3000 System changing to support at 5350 levels…Nifty expected to reach 5369 levels
Closing Comment: System reversed to favour puts and Stop Loss hit on position
29 Aug 2012,10:18 am 29 Aug 2012, 1:19 pm NIFTY PE 5400.00 30AUG2012 1 * 50(50) 62 94 3100 1600 Support at 5350 reduced. Market likely to break 5300 levels before expiry
Update at 1:19pm: Cover 1 lot at CMP of 94. Hold another lot for original target
Update at 3:13pm. Cover the other lot at CMP of 101
29 Aug 2012,10:18 am 29 Aug 2012, 3:13 pm NIFTY PE 5400.00 30AUG2012 1 * 50(50) 62 101 3100 1950 Support at 5350 reduced. Market likely to break 5300 levels before expiry
Update at 1:19pm: Cover 1 lot at CMP of 94. Hold another lot for original target
Update at 3:13pm. Cover the other lot at CMP of 101
30 Aug 2012,9:33 am 30 Aug 2012, 10:13 am NIFTY PE 5400.00 30AUG2012 4 * 50(200) 29 40 5800 2200 Market showing strong bearishness for the day. First leg can be traded for target of 42.40.
Update at 10:13am: cover all lots at CMP of 40
Update at 10:24am..buy back 4 lots at CMP of 34.
Update at 10:47am Buy 4 more lots (200) of 5300 PE at CMP of 24. SL 5..New target for 8 lots at 63
Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
30 Aug 2012,9:33 am 30 Aug 2012, 3:05 pm NIFTY PE 5400.00 30AUG2012 4 * 50(200) 34 5 6800 -5800 Market showing strong bearishness for the day. First leg can be traded for target of 42.40.
Update at 10:13am: cover all lots at CMP of 40
Update at 10:24am..buy back 4 lots at CMP of 34.
Update at 10:47am Buy 4 more lots (200) of 5300 PE at CMP of 24. SL 5..New target for 8 lots at 63
30 Aug 2012,9:33 am 30 Aug 2012, 3:05 pm NIFTY PE 5400.00 30AUG2012 4 * 50(200) 24 5 4800 -3800 Market showing strong bearishness for the day. First leg can be traded for target of 42.40.
Update at 10:13am: cover all lots at CMP of 40
Update at 10:24am..buy back 4 lots at CMP of 34.
Update at 10:47am Buy 4 more lots (200) of 5300 PE at CMP of 24. SL 5..New target for 8 lots at 63
30 Aug 2012,12:18 pm 30 Aug 2012, 3:30 pm RELIANCE PE 780.00 30AUG2012 1 * 500(500) 3.95 0 1975 -1975 Reliance looking bearish. Could be used to move NIFTY down towards the end of the day.
Closing Comment: The expected move did not happen. Stop Loss hit in position
Overall Profit/Loss Rs.3107.5

Performance Update for August 2010: A robust performance yielding strong returns !!

Sunday, September 12th, 2010

The picks are published under http://www.stockezy.com/picks/tripleint/

A total of 33 trades were generated in the month of August and with 1,00,000 as initial investment and a 2% money management based position sizing per trade has yielded robust returns of Rs. 30,360.65.


The same picks if traded under futures segment would have yielded a profit of approximately Rs. 89,412.50

Note: The calculation is without taking into consideration the cumulative amount gained and it is based on a flat 2% risk per trade based on the stop loss provided limiting the position size to the initial amount of Rs.100000 per trade. Increasing the risk % would increase the yield, but it is not advisable to go beyond the 2% risk per trade

For details refer to http://tinyurl.com/tripleint-performance-aug2010


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Performance update for July 2010 – A 12% return for the month !

Friday, August 13th, 2010

Performance update for the month of July 2010


The picks are published under http://www.stockezy.com/picks/tripleint . All the picks focus on a holding period of 5 days only.

The profit generated for the month is Rs. 12060 with a flat risk of 2% in each trade.

For the month of June 2010, the returns generated was 8.78% and taking that into account, the return for the month of July is 13.11%. Overall the profit is Rs. 21900 in two months.

Note: The calculation is without taking into consideration the cumulative amount gained on individual trades and it is based on a flat 2% risk per trade based on the stop loss provided. Increasing the risk % would increase the yield, but it is not advisable to go beyond the 2% risk per trade.

The same picks if traded under futures segment would have yielded a profit of approx Rs. 52500.

For full details refer to http://tinyurl.com/2652gsf


Happy Trading

Rajesh Ganesh.

-Happy Trading