Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Weekly Update – Week ended 20th Dec 2013

Monday, December 23rd, 2013

TripleInt

On friday, NIFTY had a run up till the very end and closed the week at 6274 levels, a weekly gain of 1.72%.

Overall the bearishness that the system was showing turned into bullishness friday morning and we had to close the put position that was opened the previous day even before it hit the stop loss. It proved to be beneficial to limit the losses though we could not use the system input to take a call trade.

Over all on the weekly charts, there is still negative divergence seen and throughout this month, there had been a series of news based triggers and random openings in NIFTY largely due to that. We have entered the expiry week of trading and have three more sessions including today.

NIFTY is hovering around 6300 levels and system parameters are oscillating between put and call as far as IV and OI trend is concerned, more so indicating grinding of premium in both puts and calls at 6300 levels. Options buys become tough in such scenarios where volatility, time as well as price moves will shrink the premium.

We have to be in wait and watch mode to check if any big move is being indicated by the system going forward for this series.

Closed Position details

 

Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
06-Dec-2013, 9:23 am 06-Dec-2013, 3:16 pm NIFTY CE 6500.00 26DEC2013 2 * 50(100) 48.40 52.2 4840 380 Nifty likely to scale new highs by afternoon. Closing comment: Though NIFTY went up till the last minute the magnitude was less. Position closed at 52.2
11-Dec-2013,10:51 am 12-Dec-2013,9:37 am NIFTY PE 6300.00 26DEC2013 1 * 50(50) 70.25 85.4 3512.5 757.5 Nifty likely to test 6265 levels and below. Closing comment: Nifty reached expected levels and target hit. Though high price of option at open was 109.70, it was not tradable. Position closed at target of 85.4
19-Dec-2013,10:09 am 20-Dec-2013,10:09 am NIFTY PE 6200.00 26DEC2013 1 * 50(50) 68.20 44.60 3410 -1180 Nifty likely to move towards 6135 and eventually to 6030 levels. Closing comment: Option premiums have started eroding due to range moves and system parameters IV and OI trend changed in the morning. Position closed
Overall Profit/Loss Rs.-42.5

 

System data as on 20th Dec market close

======== Underlying Index: NIFTY 6274.25  As on Dec 20 2013 15:30:37 IST =========

 

Set-1 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 6274 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 6274 5800 6700 PUT CALL 34.86 -920,400 106.00
## 6274 5900 6600 PUT CALL 22.38 -276,000 85.67
## 6274 6000 6500 PUT PUT 20.11 627,900 PUT 93.39
## 6274 6100 6400 PUT CALL 16.09 -634,150 86.51
## ## 6200 6300 PUT CALL 4.37 -628,050 16.81
Set-2 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 6274 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 6274 5800 6600 PUT PUT 30.71 154,650 PUT 110.18
## 6274 5900 6500 PUT PUT 19.06 1,467,250 PUT 85.70
## 6274 6000 6400 PUT PUT 18.53 820,650 PUT 94.24
## 6274 6100 6300 PUT CALL 5.88 -2,447,050 20.48
## ## 6200 6200 PUT CALL 3.94 -6,299,400 13.99
Set-3 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 6274 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 6274 5900 6700 PUT CALL 26.53 -1,351,050 87.04
## 6274 6000 6600 PUT CALL 23.43 -1,115,350 93.16
## 6274 6100 6500 PUT CALL 17.67 -826,900 87.21
## 6274 6200 6400 PUT PUT 14.58 1,184,850 PUT 83.69
## ## 6300 6300 PUT PUT 4.80 5,043,300 PUT 19.88
Set-4 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 6274 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 6274 5900 6800 PUT CALL 30.05 -1,996,450 88.90
## 6274 6000 6700 PUT CALL 27.58 -2,190,400 94.57
## 6274 6100 6600 PUT CALL 20.99 -2,570,150 89.57
## 6274 6200 6500 PUT PUT 16.16 992,100 PUT 85.62
## ## 6300 6400 PUT PUT 15.01 6,856,200 PUT 90.61

 


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Closed Position Details November 2013

Monday, December 2nd, 2013

We came to the end of November series and the profits for the month stand at Rs.3115.

Out of 5 trades, 3 were profitable and 2 resulted in loss.

We did not take any expiry trade as Nifty was hovering around 6100 levels and option premium were getting eroded because of tight range. It proved to be beneficial as Nifty closed the series at 6092 levels.

As we enter December series, IV skew is favouing bears, but OI trend is still not supporting bearish moves. Already Nifty gave a strong up move today after opening above 6100 levels.

We will wait for the system and pattern to emerge before taking our first trade.

Expiry Chart

Monthly Chart

The summary of trades taken in the month of November is given below.

Closed Position details

Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
08-Nov-2013,11:18 am 11-Nov-2013,9:20 am NIFTY PE 6100.00 28NOV2013 1 * 50(50) 65.20 82.60 3260 870 NIfty spot likely to come down to 6108 levels. Closing comment: Spot reached target of 6108 after market open. Position closed
12-Nov-2013,10:53 am 13-Nov-2013,9:15 am NIFTY CE 6200.00 28NOV2013 2 * 50(100) 49 33.65 4900 -1535 Nifty expected to reach 6148 levels after a mild correction. Closing comment: Nifty opened gap down beyond our stop price and position closed at 33.65
14-Nov-2013,11:11 am 14-Nov-2013,1:22 pm NIFTY CE 6200.00 28NOV2013 2 * 50(100) 51.60 39.5 5160 -1210 Nifty likely to reach our initial target of 6148. System pointing to up move. Closing comment: System OI trend drastically changing intra-day. The position is closed
20-Nov-2013,11:20 am 21-Nov-2013,9:15 am NIFTY PE 6150.00 28NOV2013 1 * 50(50) 40.6 87.2 2030 2330 Nifty likely to come down as prompted by the system. Closing comment: Nifty opened beyond our target price with the gap down. Position closed at 87.40
25-Nov-2013,10:54 am 25-Nov-2013, 3:05 pm NIFTY CE 6100.00 28NOV2013 2 * 50(100) 34.60 61.20 3460 2660 Nifty likely to reach 6123 levels. Closing comment: Nifty reached a high of 6123 and our target of 61.20 hit. Both lots closed
Overall Profit/Loss Rs.3115

Closed Position Details – October 2013

Monday, November 11th, 2013

Closed Position details

Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
09-Oct-2013, 9:42 am 09-Oct-2013, 12:30 pm NIFTY CE 6200.00 31OCT2013 2 * 50(100) 46.05 61.40 4605 1535 System showing bullishness. Nifty spot likely to move towards 5970 levels. Target of 61.40 reached. Position is closed.
17-Oct-2013, 9:57 am 17-Oct-2013, 3:13 pm NIFTY CE 6200.00 31OCT2013 1 * 50(50) 52.80 35.70 2640 -855 Nifty likely to move towards 6200 levels. System OI trend indicating bullishness. Closing comment: System indicating range bound again and market failed to reach target of 6200
23-Oct-2013, 9:35 am 23-Oct-2013, 12:06 pm NIFTY PE 6100.00 31OCT2013 2 * 50(100) 31 47.2 3100 1620 Nifty likely to move towards 6130 levels. Closing comment: Target reached
25-Oct-2013,10:39 am 25-Oct-2013,1:40 pm NIFTY PE 6100.00 31OCT2013 2 * 50(100) 37.75 26 3775 -1175 Nifty likely to come down towards 6100 levels as prompted by system. Closing comment: Stop loss triggered
29-Oct-2013,11:12 am 29-Oct-2013,12:37 pm NIFTY CE 6100.00 31OCT2013 1 * 50(50) 49.20 77.20 2460 1400 Nifty likely to move further up as prompted by the system. Closing comment: Target reached
30-Oct-2013, 1:58 pm 31-Oct-2013, 3:30 pm NIFTY PE 6200.00 31OCT2013 2 * 50(100) 10.6 0 1060 -1060 Nifty likely to come down for expiry tomorrow. Closing comments: Expired worthless. Position stopped out
                  Overall Profit/Loss Rs.1465  

Nifty 18 Sep 2013

Wednesday, September 18th, 2013

- Happy Trading www.tripleint.com

Performance for the month of July 2013

Friday, August 2nd, 2013

Closed Position details

Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
23-Jul-2013,12:03 pm 24-Jul-2013, 9:15 am NIFTY PE 6100.00 25JUL2013 4 * 50(200) 30 62 6000 6400 Nifty likely to come down from current levels by afternoon. Closing comment: Target hit. Our target was 47 and market opened gap down and the put started trading at 62 levels. The position is closed at 62.
Overall Profit/Loss Rs.6400

Performance for the month of June 2013

Friday, August 2nd, 2013

Closed Position details

Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
04-Jun-2013,3:21 pm 12-Jun-2013,9:15 am NIFTY CE 6100.00 27JUN2013 2 * 50(100) 34.25 11.30 3425 -2295 Nifty likely to move up as indicated by the system. Closing comments: Stop loss of 12 got triggered at open on 6100 calls. We were able to close the calls at 11.30. The position is closed as of now.
19-Jun-2013,10:19 am 20-Jun-2013,9:20 am NIFTY PE 5700.00 27JUN2013 3 * 50(150) 35.45 61.40 5317.5 3892.5 NIFTY likely to move towards 5700 levels.Closing comments: Target reached
Overall Profit/Loss Rs.1597.5

Performance for the month of May 2013

Friday, August 2nd, 2013

Closed Position details

Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
04-Jun-2013,3:21 pm NIFTY CE 6100.00 27JUN2013 2 * 50(100) 34.25 78 3425 4375 Nifty likely to move up as indicated by the system.
28-May-2013, 9:45 am 28-May-2013 3:28 pm NIFTY PE 6100.00 30MAY2013 2 * 50(100) 41.80 26 4180 -1580 Nifty likely to come down after a test of 6100 levels. Closing comment: It reached a high of 68.40 after we bought it at 41.80 and did not move further towards our target. Currently the position is closed at the stop loss price of 26.
Overall Profit/Loss Rs.2795

Performance for the month of April

Friday, August 2nd, 2013

Performance for the month of April 2013

Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
04-Apr-2013, 9:49 am 08-Apr-2013, 9:15 am NIFTY CE 5800.00 25APR2013 3 * 50(150) 19.90 9.40 2985 -1575 Nifty likely to give a bounce as indicated by the system. Closing comment: Stop loss triggered
08-Apr-2013,10:15 am 09-Apr-2013,11:35 am NIFTY PE 5500.00 25APR2013 2 * 50(100) 51.50 34.40 5150 -1710 Nifty likely to break 5500 levels. Closing comments: Stop loss triggered
11-Apr-2013, 1:03 pm 11-Apr-2013, 3:11 pm NIFTY PE 5400.00 25APR2013 3 * 50(150) 27 18.35 4050 -1297.5 Nifty likely to move towards 5449 levels.Closing comment: The position is closed earlier due to change in input parameters
09-Apr-2013, 9:27 am 12-Apr-2013, 2:45 pm ICICIBANK PE 960.00 25APR2013 1 * 250(250) 10.25 4.25 2562.5 -1500 ICICI likely to move towards 947 levels for the series.Closing comment: The position came till 18.30, but did not reach out target. It is closed at the stoploss price
11-Apr-2013, 1:09 pm 12-Apr-2013, 2:45 pm ICICIBANK PE 960.00 25APR2013 4 * 250(1000) 6.25 4.25 6250 -2000 ICICI likely to move towards 947 levels. Averaging trade with same stop loss. Closing comment: Stop loss triggered in position
Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
15-Apr-2013,11:13 am 16-Apr-2013,9:36 am NIFTY CE 5600.00 25APR2013 2 * 50(100) 38.20 66.35 3820 2815 Positive divergence in day charts. Nifty likely to test 200 DMA at 5652
25-Apr-2013,10:36 am 25-Apr-2013,3:23 pm NIFTY CE 5900.00 25APR2013 2 * 50(100) 12.75 11.30 1275 -145 Nifty likely to move towards 5946 levels for expiry. Closing comments: Though nifty went up above 5900, the max the option appreciated was Rs.24 which fell short of target
25-Apr-2013,10:36 am 25-Apr-2013,3:23 pm RELIANCE CE 800.00 25APR2013 1 * 250(250) 12.20 17.95 3050 1437.5 RELIANCE likely to move NIFTY higher for expiry. Closing comment: Reliance was the mover and the option reached a high of 25.80 which fell short of target
Overall Profit/Loss Rs.-3975

Performance for the month of March

Friday, August 2nd, 2013

Expiry Chart for March 2013 series
Expiry Chart

Performance for the month of March 2013

Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
14-Mar-2013,10:18 am 14-Mar-2013,11:46 am NIFTY PE 5700.00 28MAR2013 5 * 50(250) 36.35 17 9087.5 -4837.5 Nifty likely to go down. System OI data pointing to a down move. Update: The stop loss is set at 17 due to heightened volatility. Closing comment: Stop loss triggered
15-Mar-2013,12:33 pm 19-Mar-2013,11:22 am NIFTY PE 5800.00 28MAR2013 3 * 50(150) 28 61 4200 4950 Nifty likely to come down further in the afternoon. Closing comment: Target hit
22-Mar-2013,12:33 pm 22-Mar-2013, 3:00 pm NIFTY CE 5700.00 28MAR2013 5 * 50(250) 30.4 24.4 7600 -1500 Nifty likely to move up towards 5715 levels. Nifty gave the upmove, but out stop loss got hit before the upmove
25-Mar-2013,12:07 pm 25-Mar-2013,2:30 pm NIFTY PE 5700.00 28MAR2013 3 * 50(150) 31.40 61.40 4710 4500 Nifty likely to fall further pointed by the system.Closing comment: Target reached.
28-Mar-2013, 2:46 pm 28-Mar-2013, 3:15 pm NIFTY PE 5700.00 28MAR2013 1 * 50(50) 60 34 3000 -1300 Nifty likely to come down for expiry from this level. Closing comment: Stop loss triggered in position
Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
Overall Profit/Loss Rs.1812.5

February – A month in which volatility triggered closer stops

Tuesday, March 12th, 2013

End of February Series and beginning of March Series – What to Expect?

There were 5 trades for the month. Out of the 5 trades, 1 was profitable and 4 ended up in loss. With a starting capital of Rs.30,000, the final loss for the month stand at Rs. 5177.50. The overall profit for the last seven months stand at Rs. 10,801.25, a 36% gain.

What went right for the month?

The month started on a good note with 2K profit on the initial put trade. Most of the predictions were correct for the month and we had 4 put trades while the markets were going down which was also right.

What went wrong for the month?

NIFTY moves became volatile and even though we were well placed in puts for the month, markets moved to trigger our stop losses before moving into profit zone. Thus we were stopped out of most of the positions.

Learnings and how do we move forward

1. The system trades and predictions of market initially reaching 5836 levels came to be correct. Also the prediction that markets will even see sub-5700 levels for the expiry came to be correct.
2. We did not venture into expiry trades even though we had predicted a sub-5700 move.
3. We did not reenter the positions after the stops were taken and when markets started going in out favour.

How does it look like for the March series

February series saw markets correcting significantly towards the end. TripleInt’s system is indicating a positive move in March. We will wait for confirmation from TripleInt’s option trading system for initiating new trades.

Nifty February Expiry Charts

The expiry chart is given below

For other option price move charts on the expiry day, please follow the link
http://tripleint.com/nifty-28-feb-2013-expiry-chart//

Performance for the month of February

Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
07-Feb-2013, 9:43 am 08-Feb-2013, 3:20 pm NIFTY PE 5900.00 28FEB2013 2 * 50(100) 47.60 69.55 4760 2195 Nifty likely to fall further as it has broken key support of 5957. Closing comment: Not carrying the position over weekend. Covered when it broke 5900 levels
11-Feb-2013,10:04 am 11-Feb-2013, 9:15 am NIFTY PE 5800.00 28FEB2013 4 * 50(200) 32.20 21.40 6440 -2160 Nifty likely to test 5847 levels. Further downside seen. Closing Comment: Stop loss triggered.
14-Feb-2013, 9:28 am 20-Feb-2013, 9:17 am NIFTY PE 5900.00 28FEB2013 2 * 50(100) 49 29 4900 -2000 Weekly negative divergence. Nifty likely to break lower range and move towards 5836 levels. Closing comment: Position went above 81 after we bought at 49. We were expecting more downside. Currently stop loss triggered.
26-Feb-2013, 9:27 am 26-Feb-2013, 3:00 pm NIFTY CE 5900.00 28FEB2013 4 * 50(200) 22.80 12.40 4560 -2080 Nifty likely to move up the next two days.
27-Feb-2013,10:48 am 27-Feb-2013, 3:19 pm NIFTY PE 5800.00 28FEB2013 1 * 50(50) 63.50 40.85 3175 -1132.5 Nifty likely to break 5700 levels before expiry tomorrow. System indicating bearishness. Closing comments: Position is closed now. Will initiate fresh trade for expiry tomorrow
Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
Overall Profit/Loss Rs.-5177.5

Happy Trading
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