Archive for the ‘Weekly updates’ Category

Weekly Update: Entering the expiry zone…An above 6000 close for the series

Monday, September 27th, 2010

What the markets did last week ?
Last week the bull run continued and markets made a high of 6037 levels before settling at 6018 for the week, a 2.27% gain over the previous week.
It has been a continuous four week bull run and markets have entered the expiry week on a very strong note.
What does the options data indicate ?
The PCR as on friday was 1.38 indicating further bullish move. Currently option data is seeing an increase in OI in 6100 and 6000 puts with increase seen in 6100 calls.
What can be expected this week ?
Overall the implied volatility of puts have reduced and are trading lesser when compared to the near strike calls. This points to the fact that markets could reverse from the high levels and move towards 6000 levels sooner and as of now an above 6000 close at around 6014 levels is seen for this expiry this thursday.

Weekly Resistance levels : 6042, 6065, 6102

Weekly Support levels : 6014, 5981, 5946

-Happy Trading

Weekly Update: Markets reaching all extrapolated target levels

Tuesday, September 21st, 2010




Nifty raced past last week’s target of 5942 and made an attempt to scale 6000 peak.
The key level to watch out based on weekly charts is 6014 and Nifty might be able to scale it before consolidating in a tight range for this series.
A move beyond 6014 could trigger the final leg of strong momemtum buying along with short squeeze at this stage.
Options data is still seeing strong unwinding in all the near strike calls and 5900 and 6000 puts adding on to open interest.
It is not expected for the markets to correct below 5885 for this series.
Weekly resistance levels : 5990, 6014, 6042

Weekly support levels : 5942, 5902, 5885

-Happy Trading

Weekly Update: Markets nearing the intermediate peak …

Monday, September 13th, 2010

What the markets did last week ?
Markets defied gravity last week and closed strongly at a high of 5640 levels.
What does the options data indicate ?
Options data is indicating a huge open interest in 5600 calls and puts as well as 5700 calls and 5500 puts and 5400 puts. The call implied volatility was low when compared to the puts at 9.
What can be expected this week ?
The markets have already opened the week on a strong note and have made a high of 5724 levels. Most of the key levels are pointing to a fair value of 5680 for Nifty and any move above that is an over extension and is likely to correct itself.
How to trade for the week?
Though options data is not pointing to a major correction, Nifty could swing between 5544 and 5752. (5739 is a good level to short Nifty) and is unlikely to correct below 5544 levels for this series and is expected to bounce back to 5680 levels on any further correction.
Weekly resistance levels : 5680, 5721, 5739, 5752

Weekly support levels : 5631, 5605, 5560, 5544

-Happy Trading

Weekly Update: Another range bound week with wild swings

Monday, September 6th, 2010


What the markets did last week ?
Last week it was written markets would move in a larger range but would be confined within with an increase in volatility and markets after testing a low of 5350 closed the week at 5479 levels.
What does the options data indicate ?
Options data has already seen a very strong increase in the open interest in all the near strike call and puts, with 5400 puts crossing over 1 crore much earlier in the series. Equal build up is seen in 5600 calls as well. The PCR has increased to 1.28, pointing to mild bullishness at the beginning of the week.
What can be expected this week ?
Overall it looks like markets will still be confined to a range, a larger one with volatility increase seen going forward. Any strong correction is likely to be neutralized by an equally strong up move and vice versa. Markets are likely to be confined between 5296 and 5611 for the week.
How to trade for the week?
The same strategy as that of last week to trade the range for the week with a buy at lower support levels and a sell at higher resistance levels.

Weekly resistance levels : 5531, 5587, 5611

Weekly support levels : 5444, 5352, 5296

-Happy Trading

Range bound moves with a larger range and an increase in volatility

Monday, August 30th, 2010


What the markets did last week ?
After the neutral expiry close on thursday, Nifty corrected significantly on friday to retest the support below 5400 levels and closed the week exactly at the july expiry close of 5409 levels.
What does the options data indicate ?
Though it is too early to read options data for the september series, the main thing to note is that the accumulation in near strike puts and calls have already reached a very huge number, with 5400 puts topping at 89 lakhs in OI. The PCR stands at 1.31, still favouring bulls to a certain extent and the implied volatility of calls is low at 14 and that of puts at 21.
What can be expected this week ?
Overall it looks like markets will still be confined to a range, a larger one with volatility increase seen going forward. Any strong correction is likely to be neutralized by an equally strong up move.
How to trade for the week?
It is better to trade the range for the week with a buy at lower support levels and a sell at higher resistance levels.

Weekly resistance levels : 5469, 5531, 5587

Weekly support levels : 5394, 5352, 5296

-Happy Trading

Entering the expiry week…Bulls have a strong upper hand…

Monday, August 23rd, 2010


What the markets did last week ?
Last week markets were able to reach the weekly target of 5523 levels and also tested the last resistance of 5545 before closing for the week at 5531, a gain of 1.44%. Markets also closed above 5500 mark after a large span of 2 1/2 years
What does the options data indicate ?
Options data towards the end of the week saw huge increase in open interest in the near strike puts and unwinding in all the near strike calls towards the end of the week. The PCR ratio is at 1.33 which is again a bullish sign.
What can be expected this week ?

This week being the expiry week, could see Nifty swaying in a range and bulls still have a very strong upper hand for the expiry and any down move would be nullified by a powerful bullish move going forward. Friday’s data indicate an expiry above 5500 levels for this series.
How to trade for the week?
Stay long for the expiry this week on a test of further support levels. A buy on any correction below 5500 levels is recommended.
Weekly resistance levels : 5545, 5565, 5581

Weekly support levels : 5523, 5496, 5447

-Happy Trading

Bulls to push markets to higher levels early in the week…

Monday, August 16th, 2010

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What the markets did last week ?
Last week saw markets remain in the tight range as indicated and closed the week with a small gain of 0.24% at 5452 levels.
What does the options data indicate ?
Options data towards the end of the week saw huge increase in open interest in the near strike puts and also saw unwinding in 5400 calls with mild accumulation in 5500 and 5600 calls.
What can be expected this week ?

Option data indicates bullishness in the beginning of the week and a move above 5500 levels can be expected soon.
5523 level was left untested last week and this could be done in the initial sessions in this week.
How to trade for the week?
An upmove is expected in the first few sessions towards 5523 levels and stay in long till that is reached.
Weekly resistance levels : 5496, 5523, 5545

Weekly support levels : 5447, 5401, 5368

-Happy Trading

Rajesh Ganesh

Weekly Update: Markets still confined in a tight range…

Monday, August 9th, 2010



What the markets did last week ?
Markets almost gained what was lost the previous week and Nifty managed to close the week at 5439.
What does the options data indicate ?
Options data is again pointing to a neutral move with both 5300 puts crossing a crore in open interest and 5400 puts, 5500 calls and 5600 calls above 80 lakhs. Looking at the overall open interest, it looks like a range breakout is not going to happen too soon with the put call ratio also being neutral at 1.03.
What can be expected this week ?

Any move on one side is likely to be neutralized by a move on the other side and markets might be confined between a range of 5327 to 5523 levels. 5523 is a crucial level and markets can make an attempt to test that this week.
How to trade for the week?
It is better to trade the range with a buy at support levels and a sell at resistance levels for the week.
Weekly resistance levels : 5447, 5496, 5523

Weekly support levels : 5401, 5368, 5327

-Happy Trading

Weekly Update: Markets to test crucial support levels …

Monday, August 2nd, 2010


What the markets did last week ?
Last week was the expiry week for the derivative series of July and markets closed the series just above 5400 levels and on friday corrected to test the crucial support level of 5350.
What does the options data indicate ?
It might be too early to read options data for August series.
Weekly charts are showing weakness after markets testing the upperband around 5450 levels.
What can be expected this week ?

The volatility is still at its low levels and PCR being 1.03 is giving a neutral view at this stage. There might be moves to expand the volatility and Nifty might test further support levels till 5270 for the week. The weekly upperband is exactly at 5500 levels and that will continue to act as a strong resistance level. It looks like market is unlikely to move past 5447 for the week.
How to trade for the week?
There will be signs of weakness at higher levels of 5420 and shorts can be initiated around 5420 for a target of 5296 for the week.
Weekly resistance levels : 5407, 5420, 5447

Weekly support levels : 5327, 5296, 5270



-Happy Trading

Weekly Update: Range high tested on weekly charts…Back to range bound

Monday, July 19th, 2010

What the markets did last week ?

Last week markets reached the weekly target and also band high around 5451 levels and started consolidating towards the end.

What does the options data indicate ?

Options data is again mixed with open interest being high in both the near strike calls and puts. There were accumulation seen in 5400 puts towards the end of the week and the OI in 5500 still rules high at 1 crore.

What can be expected this week ?

Now that the weekly target and upper band is tested, markets likely to fall back into range, but there is a possibility of another attempt to touch the monthly target of 5462 and markets could swing between 5296 and 5462 levels for the week.

How to trade for the week?

This week could see heightened intraday volatility with wild swings as the overall direction is not very clear at the moment and it is better to trade the range with a buy at support levels and a sell at resistance levels.

Weekly resistance levels : 5406, 5442, 5462

Weekly support levels : 5374, 5327, 5296

-Happy Trading