End of January series and beginning of February series

NIFTY closed January series at 6074 levels on last Thursday after breaching the key level of 6030 which we have been tracking for quite a while.

Bears took upper hand towards the closing week and NIFTY corrected 2.8% from that of last week’s close.

As we begin february series, system paramters are pointing to a bullish move to begin with. Today markets have opened gap down, but there is still underlying bullishness as pointed by the system and as of now an upmove is expected in NIFTY going forward. Nifty might reach 6140 levels before consolidating and making the next move.

For expiry charts and other charts for the January series, please visit http://tripleint.blogspot.in/search/label/Jan2014Series

======== Underlying Index: NIFTY 6063.85  As on Feb 03 2014 10:51:05 IST =========

 

Set-1 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 6063 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 6063 5600 6500 CALL PUT -25.54 280,800 -97.09
## 6063 5700 6400 CALL CALL -22.62 -547,950 CALL -91.18
## 6063 5800 6300 CALL CALL -6.41 -91,200 CALL -19.30
## 6063 5900 6200 CALL CALL -4.82 -2,261,900 CALL -14.42
## ## 6000 6100 CALL CALL -4.36 -5,577,700 CALL -12.99
Set-2 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 6063 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 6063 5600 6400 CALL PUT -23.78 1,032,100 -92.75
## 6063 5700 6300 CALL CALL -22.54 -259,150 CALL -90.59
## 6063 5800 6200 CALL CALL -6.17 -1,250,050 CALL -18.47
## 6063 5900 6100 CALL CALL -5.02 -4,107,000 CALL -14.79
## ## 6000 6000 CALL CALL -4.70 -9,721,300 CALL -13.76
Set-3 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 6063 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 6063 5700 6500 CALL CALL -24.38 -1,299,250 CALL -95.87
## 6063 5800 6400 CALL CALL -6.49 -380,000 CALL -19.62
## 6063 5900 6300 CALL CALL -5.06 -1,103,050 CALL -15.24
## 6063 6000 6200 CALL CALL -4.16 -3,732,600 CALL -12.58
## ## 6100 6100 CALL CALL -4.02 -1,434,100 CALL -12.18
Set-4 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 6063 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 6063 5700 6600 CALL CALL -25.82 -1,631,350 CALL -98.35
## 6063 5800 6500 CALL CALL -8.25 -1,131,300 CALL -24.13
## 6063 5900 6400 CALL CALL -5.14 -1,391,850 CALL -15.54
## 6063 6000 6300 CALL CALL -4.40 -2,573,750 CALL -13.39
## ## 6100 6200 CALL PUT -3.82 411,000 -11.75

 

Trade overview

We took 7 trades last month and the win and loss in position were alternating. We did not wait for the stop loss to be triggered in the initial call trade and closed it earlier. Similarly the expiry trades that we took, we didnt close out when NIFTY reached the key level of 6030 on one of the trades. Though the bearish view was held for quite a while towards the end, we couldn’t translate them well into executed trades.

Closed Position details

Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
07-Jan-2014,11:00 am 08-Jan-2014,1:45 pm NIFTY PE 6100.00 30JAN2014 1 * 50(50) 56 58 2800 100 Nifty likely to come down towards 6120 levels as indicated by OI trend.Closing comment: System parameters are changing. The trade is closed at CMP of 58, a scratch trade
09-Jan-2014, 9:49 am 10-Jan-2014, 3:15 pm NIFTY CE 6300.00 30JAN2014 2 * 50(100) 41.60 32 4160 -960 Nifty likely to give a strong bounce as prompted by system. Closing comment: Though a strong up move happened and 6300 call reached a high of 59.85, markets did not move further and corrected significantly.Position closed at 32
16-Jan-2014,10:34 am 17-Jan-2014,3:09 pm NIFTY PE 6200.00 30JAN2014 2 * 50(100) 30.80 41.20 3080 1040 Nifty likely to move towards 6250 levels as prompted by system OI trend.Closing comment: NIFTY spot reached 6250 levels and position closed
20-Jan-2014,12:55 pm 20-Jan-2014,3:15 pm NIFTY PE 6300.00 30JAN2014 2 * 50(100) 59.50 45 5950 -1450 Nifty likely to move below 6200 levels. Closing comment: Stop loss triggered as Nifty failed to move down further and gave a bounce towards the end
24-Jan-2014,10:47 am 24-Jan-2014,11:03 am NIFTY PE 6300.00 30JAN2014 2 * 50(100) 45.40 59 4540 1360 Nifty likely to test 6270, 6230 levels. Closing comment: Move happened very fast and target reached. Entry changed to 45.40 from 42.30
30-Jan-2014, 1:07 pm 30-Jan-2014, 3:15 pm NIFTY PE 6100.00 30JAN2014 1 * 50(50) 46.70 25 2335 -1085 Nifty likely to move towards 6030 levels and below. Closing comment: NIFTY came below 6030 levels and option value came till 74.50 instead of 77.40. After that SL triggered
Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
30-Jan-2014, 1:10 pm 30-Jan-2014, 2:51 pm NIFTY PE 6050.00 30JAN2014 2 * 50(100) 12.5 26.4 1250 1390 Nifty likely to move towards 6030 levels and below. Closing comment: NIFTY came below 6030 levels and target reached
Overall Profit/Loss Rs.395

 

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