November – A month of profitable returns from fewer number of trades

End of November Series and beginning of December Series – What to Expect?

There were 5 trades for the month. Out of the 5 trades, 3 were profitable and 2 ended up in loss. With a starting capital of Rs.30000, the final profits for the month stand at Rs.4060, a 13.5% return.

What went right for the month?

It was a range bound month with swings on both sides. The expiry prediction of NIFTY reaching 5832 levels came spot on resulting in profitable trade for the month.

What went wrong for the month?

The initial trade went wrong and so had to take a pause to study further moves carefully along with system input and taking risk aspects into account. The expectation of market reaching 5585 levels was met, but our trade against that view in the initial part of the month backfired.

Learnings and how do we move forward

1. More time was taken to study the market as it was swinging from one side to the other without giving a strong directional trend.
2. We restricted to lesser number of trades for the entire month thus taking care of risk aspect.
3. Expiry trade was made with a very good reward to risk ratio and that paid off well.
4. The SBIN trade initiated on the expiry day for the next month series proved to be successful with the target being reached on the very first day of the December series.

How does it look like for the December series

The November series closed on a year high value. As we enter the December series, there is some amount of bullishness as pointed by TripleInt’s option trading system and markets can test 5925 levels.

Nifty November Expiry Charts

The expiry chart is given below

For other option price move charts on the expiry day, please follow the link
http://tripleint.com/nifty-29-nov-12-expiry-chart/

Performance for the month of November

Date Open Date Closed Scrip Option Type Strike Expiry Num Lots * Lot size Entry Price Exit Price Total Investment Profit/Loss Comment
26-Oct-2012,10:20 am 30-Oct-2012,11:45 am NIFTY CE 5800.00 29NOV2012 2 * 50(100) 54.70 31.40 5470 -2330 System giving a bullish indication. Likely to test 5742 levels in the beginning of the series. Closing comment: Stop loss triggered in position and it is closed
06-Nov-2012,10:58 am 16-Nov-2012, 3:13 pm NIFTY PE 5600.00 29NOV2012 2 * 50(100) 29 62.40 2900 3340 System turning bearish. Expecting a down move. Closing comment: Target reached
09-Nov-2012, 1:05 pm 27-Nov-2012, 1:28 pm HCLTECH PE 600.00 29NOV2012 1 * 500(500) 4.55 0.05 2275 -2250 Looking bearish with strong negative divergence. Closing comment: Stop loss triggered
29-Nov-2012,12:04 pm 29-Nov-2012,3:05 pm NIFTY CE 5800.00 29NOV2012 5 * 50(250) 9.8 29.4 2450 4900 Expiry trade. Looks like market is likely to breakout of 5800 and reach 5832 levels. NOTE: Complete risk in position as we will let it expire otherwise. Closing Comment: Target reached
29-Nov-2012, 2:06 pm 29-Nov-2012, 3:05 pm RELIANCE CE 800.00 29NOV2012 2 * 500(1000) 2 2.4 2000 400 Reliance likely to move NIFTY higher for expiry. Closing comment: Position closed at 2.4 as NIFTY target is reached
Overall Profit/Loss Rs.4060

TripleInt’s Option trading System at end of November Series

The system input at the end of the november series and after the first day of trading in the december series is as given below.

======== Underlying Index: NIFTY 5879.85  As on Nov 30 2012 15:30:31 IST =========

Set-1 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5879 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5879 5400 6300 CALL CALL -24.39 -2,699,750 CALL -103.98
## 5879 5500 6200 CALL CALL -20.56 -2,284,750 CALL -96.67
## 5879 5600 6100 CALL CALL -18.29 -1,760,750 CALL -92.04
## 5879 5700 6000 CALL PUT -9.00 1,666,900 -36.85
## ## 5800 5900 CALL CALL -6.01 -48,000 CALL -23.58
Set-2 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5879 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5879 5400 6200 CALL CALL -22.43 -2,631,700 CALL -99.15
## 5879 5500 6100 CALL CALL -19.61 -1,197,300 CALL -94.01
## 5879 5600 6000 CALL PUT -18.09 527,650 -91.65
## 5879 5700 5900 CALL CALL -9.42 -1,686,500 CALL -38.64
## ## 5800 5800 CALL CALL -6.98 -2,818,000 CALL -27.60
Set-3 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5879 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5879 5500 6300 CALL CALL -22.52 -2,352,800 CALL -102.35
## 5879 5600 6200 CALL CALL -19.24 -2,848,200 CALL -95.06
## 5879 5700 6100 CALL CALL -9.20 -621,500 CALL -37.36
## 5879 5800 6000 CALL PUT -5.59 3,305,400 -21.89
## ## 5900 5900 CALL PUT -5.04 2,722,000 -19.63
Set-4 NIFTY Overall Buy
## SPOT 5879 Puts Calls IV Skew OI Skew IV Skew OI Skew Overall IV Skew%
## 5879 5500 6400 CALL CALL -24.80 -3,309,200 CALL -108.29
## 5879 5600 6300 CALL CALL -21.20 -2,916,250 CALL -101.40
## 5879 5700 6200 CALL CALL -10.15 -1,708,950 CALL -40.28
## 5879 5800 6100 CALL PUT -5.79 1,017,000 -22.48
## ## 5900 6000 CALL PUT -4.62 6,075,400 -17.96

Happy Trading
—www.tripleint.com

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